Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/29-10/1, likely voters):
Jim Martin (D): 44
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45
Other: 4
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±4%)
If these numbers are to be believed, we now have on helluva tight Senate race on our hands. Recent polls by SurveyUSA and the Mellman Group also pegged this race as within two or three points.
The poll also finds Martin running ahead of Obama, who is trailing McCain by 50-43. One point of concern to me, though, is this data point from SurveyUSA’s poll: among early voters (9% of their sample), 64% cast their votes for Obama, but only 61% cast their votes for Martin. For Martin to win here, he’d need to be running ahead of Obama (barring a miracle where Obama carries the state). There are still plenty more votes to be cast, though, so the big question that remains is whether or not the DSCC is going to make a fight of it here.
Right now about 40% of early voters in Georgia are African American (which is substantially higher than the percentage of registered voters who are African American). Since Obama is almost certainly outperforming Martin among African American voters while Martin is (likely) outperforming Obama among white voters. If that’s the case, then it shouldn’t be too surprising that early voters show Martin underperforming Obama (additionally, since that is only 9% of those surveyed, about 60 voters, the margin of error is going to be astronomical)
for the presidential race, and most notably KY, NC, and GA Senate races.
this is a close race. They can make this the next NC. They need to get on the air NOW though. They made a great web ad right after Martin won the primary
Why not start running this on the air? And maybe something close to that on the economy.
With numbers like these in Georgia, I wonder if Obama has given a thought to making a play for Arkansas.
I’m sure Bill and Hillary could stump for him effectively there.
Senate Majority leader Harry Reid was in Atlanta over the weekend to check out how things were going & to do some fundraising for Martin. The appearance didn’t get alot of attention. People down here find it hard to believe that this race is this close. We have had three polls showing this race close, despite chambliss spending more than $1 million dollars on ad buys. All I know that if the DSCC were to drop $1 to 1.5 million in this race, martin will most definitely win, plus he will debate chambliss on Oct. 9 at the Ga. National Fair Reaves Arena. And with a competitive race down in southeast Georgia between Bill Gillespie (D) & Jack Kingston (R), west Georgia between Stephen Camp (D) & Lynn Westmoreland (R), expect some surprises come Nov. 4.
I guess I shouldn’t really be surprised because Jim Martin is a very good candidate, but I’m tickled pink that this has lurched into ‘toss-up’ territory. Along with North Carolina (which I think almost has to be categorized as a seat that leans Democratic; even McCain’s camp says Dole is “certain” to lose to Kay Hagan), Georgia is truly the sleeper race of this cycle. I’d love to see us take back the seat once held by Sam Nunn and Max Cleland.
Off topic, but Georgia’s governor, the odious Sonny Perdue, is term limited out of office in 2010. I know there’s a load of similarly nutso Republican congressmen (Kingston, Westmoreland) who would probably be interested in running along with the Republican lieutenant governor, but what’s the bench look like for the Democrats?