ME-Sen: Inching Closer

Rasmussen (10/2, likely voters, 9/17 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 43 (42)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 53 (55)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (9/30-10/2, likely voters):

Tom Allen (D): 41

Susan Collins (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±4%)

There are no direct trend lines available for the Mellman poll, but the DSCC says that Collins was leading by 15 points in their previous round of polling. While these numbers still aren’t great, they both show why this race isn’t completely off the map.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 52-35 in Maine according to the Mellman Group, and by 51-46 according to Rasmussen.

28 thoughts on “ME-Sen: Inching Closer”

  1. i doubt obama is up by just 5, as rassy says, and 17 points seems too good to be true.  so does collins under 50.  43-53 soundsabout right, within MoE.enough to keep hope, but not enough to drop DSCC money.

  3. I recall that being a race that closed late, but I could be wrong.  The parallels aren’t exact, of course, but the ME-Sen campaign has been one of the more frustrating ones this cycle so far.  

  6. this poll proves why Maine will be the last race the DSCC plays in

    Virginia and New Mexico are given

    Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska are all pretty good bets that will require some but not a lot of money.  

    North Carolina is getting to that point as well.  

    That leaves Oregon, Minnesota and Mississippi as the last obvious targets to get to 60.  

    In order to provide a buffer,  the races that could get the cash are Georgia, Maine and Texas.  

    Georgia is becoming and obvious choice,  which leaves Maine and Texas.  Maine gets picked because 1.  Obama will win there, 2  Allen has more money than Noriega and 3  Maine is a lot less expensive than Texas.  

    Maine will see its 5 million and it may see more than that as the NRSC begins to pull out of other races like Colorado and Alaska (when Stevens gets indicted) freeing up more DSCC money for other states.  

  7. The McCain support suggests to me that the Rasmussen polling reflects about a 3% oversampling (or equivalent overweighting) of Republican support/voters.

    Once corrected for that, the two pollings seem right in line with each other.  And right at that 51/49 election outcome that seems the usual thing for an incumbent Senator at the end, or one term from the end, of his/her career in office….

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