Susquehanna Polling and Research for Lou Barletta (10/2, likely voters, 9/22 in parens):
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 39 (41)
Lou Barletta (R): 47 (45)
(MoE: ±4%)
More brutal numbers for Kanjorski — just take a look at his upside-down favorable and re-elect scores (below the fold). Overall, the numbers are not far off from a recent Franklin & Marshall poll showing Barletta leading by 44-35.
The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors have spent over $1.5 million on shoring up Kanjorski so far this year, and I bet they’re not planning on quitting now. For all their efforts, though, Kanjorski could end up being “the one” on election night.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
I’m beginning to lose hope, especially if Kanjorski doesn’t release any numbers.
but I’m not feeling too good about it.
Better Pennsylvania news: SUSA sez Obama by 15.
If Barletta wins in the end, Democrats in Hispanic areas should point him out and raise his profile as the crazy new face of the GOP. If he’s one of very few successful R challengers this cycle, I think that says a lot about the nativism & anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic sentiment at the rotten core of the GOP.
I live in PA-11, in East Stroudsburg and it’s funny to think that my congressman, Paul Kanjorski, may be one of the few, if not the only, Democrats to lose their seat in this election. Paul Kanjorski is getting older, he is losing popularity, and the district is very conservative and parts of it are very Republican. I live in Monroe County, the most conservative county in the district. This district, from top to bottom, is blue collar conservative, majority white, and most voters are 40+. McCain will likely win this district, I’m guessing by about 55-44 or something like that.
I think Kanjorski will get more votes than just 39, but Barletta may win narrowly. I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout.
Monroe County is one of the most competitive “swing counties” in America. In 2004, George Bush beat John Kerry here by only four – FOUR – votes. You don’t get much close than that, my friends.
Maybe Kanjorski will hold it, but if so he needs to be leaned on heavily to retire. Either way, there’s a definite need for somebody who can run a decent campaign against Barletta. Anybody good around?