SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/6-8 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 43 (40)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (48)
Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
SurveyUSA has been noticeably friendlier to Dole than most other pollsters in this state, and this release is no exception — it’s the first poll in several weeks to give Dole an edge (albeit an extremely marginal one). The important thing to note is the trend line, and it’s favoring Hagan.
Bev Perdue (D): 45 (41)
Pat McCrory (R): 46 (49)
Mike Munger (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)
No surprise: this race is extremely close. A PPP poll released earlier today gave Perdue a 3-point lead, so either result is plausible.
And in the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 49-46, that’s down from the ridiculous 58-38 lead that McCain posted in SUSA’s September poll.
Bu it is odd how they seem to favor Obama/Dems in some states and McCain/Repubs in others. No middle ground from Survey USA – they either nail it or are astronomically way out there.
This poll, while giving Democrats a 5 point advantage this time instead of a
1 last time around, is still vastly underrepresenting Democrats. Registration (of course, I don’t know after the recent wave of new registration which has greatly boosted Dem numbers) stands at more like 4633.the september numbers had mccrory leading 49-41, not perdue!
And Obama will get 98-99% of the black vote, not 92%. I like the trend lines though.
From Political Wire:
“The latest SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina shows Sen. John McCain edges Sen. Barack Obama, 49% to 46%, assuming black turnout is 20% on Election Day.
“However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the race is tied.
“Meanwhile, the poll also shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) barely ahead of challenger Kay Hagan, 44% to 43%.”
This survey shows whites as 76% of the electorate, blacks as 20%. The population overall is 75% white, 22% black. Hispanics make up 6-7% of the population, yet are only 2% in the poll.
In a racially polarized southern state, any poll is suspect when its racial numbers are off by 3 or4 points.
If Obama is still fighting for the state on November 3rd, then come the next day black turnout should soar and he stands a decent chance at winning. There’s also no way Kay Hagan only gets 73% of the black vote. I think she’s probably ahead here by a couple points, but its still close.