Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):
Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 48
Phil English (R-inc): 41
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5)
Another brutal showing for Philly the Hutt. Remember, a recent SurveyUSA poll from late September had Dahlkemper ahead by 49-45. English’s favorable rating, at 39-45, says it all (Dahlkemper has a 49-28 rating).
With numbers this bad, it’s no surprise that the NRCC has made shoring up English priority number one in their independent expenditure shop. In a year like this, though, I’m not sure if money is gonna save him — especially with Barack Obama edging McCain by 48-46 in this culturally conservative R+1.6 district.
You can’t say that English has been caught off guard — he’s been very vocal about the danger he’s in for months, and has flooded the airwaves with ads since the early summer months in an effort to swamp out the poorly-funded Dahlkemper. You can’t dock English marks for effort, but nothing he’s been doing appears to be working at all.
remaining airtime is available in Erie and Pittsburgh, with the Presidential candidates and the national committees spending their money.
Rick Santorum spent a lot of money to lose this district, judging from the map. It also looks like Ed Rendell beat Lynn Swann here, but that’s harder to tell.
The only other republican incumbents I can think of in this bad of shape are Kuhl, Young, Musgrave, Walberg, Porter and Hayes.
but i guess she’s just the next congressperson for the 3rd congressional seat!