Quinnipiac just released two sets of Senate polls from two states, taken before and after the most recent Presidential debate. Let’s take a look.
Quinnipiac (10/8-12, likely voters, 10/3-7 in parens):
Mark Udall (D): 54 (48)
Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (43)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±3%)
It’s hard for me to believe that Udall had that big of a bounce after Obama’s debate, but I’ll take it.
Quinnipiac (10/8-12, likely voters, 10/3-7 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 38 (39)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (37)
Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (17)
(MoE: ±3.1%)
Well, this is a pretty big deal, as Franken has never posted a lead in a Q-poll before now. It also happens to be the first time that Quinnipiac has included Barkley as an option, and it appears that his presence on the ballot has thrown this race wide open.
Bonus findings: Obama leads McCain by 52-43 in Colorado (through both polls), and 51-40 in Minnesota (51-43 pre-debate).
It’s also hard for me to believe that Udall has a 14 point lead. But hell, I’ll take it.
This race deservedly a toss-up. I’ll be cautiously optimistic. MN has a history of grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory…..
CO moved to Likely D, NM moved to Safe D. Minnesota is still a toss up. I need to see more momentum on Franken’s side before I shift it, but I like what we’re seeing being that stepping stone toward more momentum. Especially since the NRSC has not stopped hitting Franken even amid Coleman’s “Pledge” to end negative campaigning.
in the last two weeks:
Q/WSJ/Post 10/8-12 Coleman 36 Franken 38 Barkley 18
Rasmussen 10/7 Coleman 37 Franken 43 Barkley 17
Q/WSJ/Post 10/3-7 Coleman 37 Franken 39
MPR/Humphrey Inst 10/3-5 Coleman 37 Franken 41 Barkley 14
Star Tribune 9/30-10/2 Coleman 34 Franken 43 Barkley 18
Those numbers are quite consistent with Franken averaging 40.5, Coleman 36.2, and Barkley 16.7. The fact that undecideds tend to land disproportionately on the side of challengers and that Coleman announced that he was giving up negative campaigning because of Yom Kippur on thursday tell me that if the election were today, Al Franken would be the next Senator in MN’s “Jewish” senate seat (demographic oddity: this seat has been held by three different people of Jewish faith since 1978 – Boschwitz ’78-’90, Wellstone ’90-’02, Coleman ’02-’08 – in a state with a tiny Jewish population).
It’s true that in ’08 the DFL gov candidate shot himself in the foot at the last minute to lose and in ’02 the DFL’s shrill memorial service cost us the senate race, but in ’90, Boschwitz blew it at the last minute by sending a “Jewish” letter to jews pushing them to support Boschwitz because he was a “better Jew.” So our messups are bipartisan:)