DCCC Spending – Races Being Overlooked

First, let’s start with the obvious.  It’s time that the DCCC cut off funding permanently for Mahoney (FL) and Kanjorski (PA).  Both have been horrible incumbents this cycle.  While I may also include Lampson (TX) in this group I think the DCCC should conduct a poll to see if Lampson is indeed survivable, yet so far I say no.  The next two incumbents which create worry are Carney and Cazayoux, independent spending may be eroding their actual numbers.

As for Democratic challengers, the DCCC does not need to continue to spend in CT-4 for two reasons: Himes has lots of money on hand and the NRCC is not spending on behalf of Shays.  Democrats should instead take funds from these three or four races and divert them to 12 other races featuring incumbents.

Now here are the races being overlooked by the DCCC:

1. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL) – The NRCC is spending on his behalf, therefore he’s obviously in trouble.  While Tom Cole enjoyed calling out Mahoney and is seeking to make Mahoney’s personal behavior a tag line for Democrats in general, he may want to tread carefully.  A Puerto Rican state senator under indictment claims he paid Diaz-Balart a suitcase full of cash.  The DCCC is clearly missing an opportunity here.

2. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL) – When Mario started going negative his numbers dropped and the race has become closer.  He claims that Garcia benefited from Enron.  A Democrat benefitting from Enron is highly unlikely.  Both Diaz-Balart brothers represent the Miami market, yet Mario’s also includes reliable Republican territory: Naples.  It clearly would be a good idea to erode the Diaz-Balart brothers base in Miami by running an ad featuring them both.

3. Ric Keller (FL) – Every major pollster is starting to move this race to the Democratic column and rightfully so.  As with the Diaz-Balart’s it would be perfect for the DCCC to run an ad featuring Keller and corrupt Feeney together.  While the NRCC would rush to save Keller over Feeney, it would then make Kosmas even more safer.  This district is evenly split between R’s and D’s and Keller’s pink slip is coming.  Unfortunately the DCCC wanted Charlie Stuart to win, yet that is a lame excuse to let Keller get a pass.  Yes Grayson had money, but he wasted it all in the primary.  Also noticeable is that his ads do not attack Keller directly or even link him with Bush.  That is where the DCCC should come in, linking Keller and Feeney with the Bush agenda.  Social security privitization and home foreclosures are both definately a sell here for them.

4. Bill Sali (ID) – The DCCC is spending a small amount here, yet the market is very inexpensive.  Sali is a lighting rod even within his own party.  Minnick could clearly have an edge with independents here if the DCCC portrays Sali as a failure.

5. Jean Schmidt (OH) – This wench is clearly in trouble and no one see’s the signs.  Hitting her with a few media runs in the extremely inexpensive Portsmouth market and mailers outside Cincinnati can be extremely beneficial to Wulsin.  Of course a media buy in Cincinnati, which includes Schmidt and Chabot together would also be a great idea.  

6. Michelle Bachmann (MN) – The NRCC stopped advertising in Minneapolis on Paulsen’s behalf in order to help Bachmann.  Obviously her summer in ANWR has had an impact back home.  Sure she represents a Republican district, but Tinklenberg is a centrist Democrat.  A little spending in Saint Cloud couldn’t hurt the DCCC.

7. Charlie Dent (PA) – He barely survived in 2006 and the DCCC knows that, yet to give him a free pass is ridiculous.  Sam Bennett appears to be a strong challenger here.  Her fundraising has surpassed the 2006 challenger who spent virtually nothing and still kept Dent at 54%.  Allentown stations are not that expensive and spending here could force the NRCC to leave Kanjorski and Barletta battling it out alone.  The DCCC could also help Carney by forcing the NRCC to divert funds to save Dent, making him the second major targeted Republican here, English being the first.

8. Dan Lungren (CA) – ABC News clearly exposed him as being corrupt and a DCCC ad showing that very footage could hurt him greatly.  It could even have some effect in the neighboring 4th, since retiring Doolittle was consistently being labeled corrupt.  Sacramento is a very expensive ad market, yet one ad and campaigning by Feinstein could help steal this seat.

9. Dean Heller (NV) – An ad featuring Lungren and Heller together in the Reno market, which crosses into Lungren’s district could help make both seats further competitive.  Linking both to Bush and the failed Republican agenda is what needs to be done.

10. Virgil Goode (VA) – Ads in Danville and Charlottesville, along with appearances by former Governor Mark Warner and current Governor Tim Kaine, could help rid Congress of Goode.

11. Shelley Moore Capito (WV) – Ads in Charleston and campaign appearances by the Clinton’s could not only make this race competitive, but also force the state into a much lighter red.

12. John Culberson (TX) – Attacking Culberson in Houston could force the NRCC to ease up on Lampson in order to protect one of their own.  Skelly has not only been a credible challenger, but a serious threat to Culberson.

Finally, if there is one grassroots candidate which may come across the finish line on election night, then Nels Ackerson (IN) may be the one.  He is challenging Buyer and has raised individual contributions equal to Buyer’s PAC money.  He’s outraised Buyer strongly in individual donations.  Purdue University is located in the district and should have a strong turnout for Obama.  The DCCC may be making a worthy investment if it did spend in Lafayette and send out mailings on Ackerson’s behalf.