MS-Sen-B: Wicker Up by 1 Point in New Poll

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 46 (43)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4%)

Well, the tightening of this race (also evident in the most recent Rasmussen poll of Mississippi) is great news, but Musgrove has also inched up to 24% of the white vote — that could well be very close to what he needs in order to squeak out a win here, assuming he can take 90% or more of the black vote (he currently beats Wicker among African-Americans by 83-5, with 12% undecided).

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 50-40 in the same poll.

14 thoughts on “MS-Sen-B: Wicker Up by 1 Point in New Poll”

  1. I think polling in both undersample African American turnout and support for D’s… Both candidates are just tapping the number of whites they need to win… DSCC and NRSC are/will be spending in both races…

    This is like MN-Sen for me.  I knew Franken would bounce back, a lot of people were down about his chances… I expect Musgrove to come back for different reasons, but it will be tight on election day.  

  2. As you note James, Musgrove is at where he needs to be with whites, and Wicker actually lost two percent support with blacks from the last R2K poll.

    We need to keep one thing in mind: these polls show the race tied assuming black turnout is at 37 percent — the percentage of blacks in the state overall.  Even a slight uptick of black turnout will likely clinch it for Musgrove.  

    One interesting stat: in the last poll, 18% of blacks were undecided for Senate, and that is now 12% undecided.  In the presidential contest, 12% of blacks are also undecided, down just one percent from the last poll. Presuming this remaining 12% breaks hard for Musgrove and Obama, Ronnie will win and Obama will finish in the high forties — an incredible showing for a Dem in the Magnolia State in a presidential.  

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