Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Vito: GUILTY.

Update: Here’s some more chatter for you — I’ve just been informed that the DCCC has released new ads against Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21), Jean Schmidt (OH-02), and Virgil Goode (VA-05).

106 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. Jim Harlan is a DINO, but if we can make steve scalise and state republicans sweat, that’s just as good.

    I wonder what kind of Democrat Moreno in LA-02 would be (hiring Republican staffers) but if she does turn out to be too conservative, we can primary her in 2010. If we don’t get Jefferson this time, he’s in for a long while.

    Also, a shout out to Carmouche and Cravins in LA-04 and LA-07!

  2. A blue Florida!  It’s looking very likely that Kosmas will be my nest congresswoman after defeating one of the worst house republicans in the country, Tom Feeney.  His ads admitting “poor judgment” in palling around with Abramoff has blown up in his face.

    We also seem to have a better than 50/50 chance at FL-08 and FL-21, and an even money chance at FL-25.  We’ll lose FL-16, but honestly, it’s not a huge loss.  

  5. 1. Did we peak too early? I am going to ask this question until I see Obama elected.

    2. MN-03

    3. CT-04

    4. AL-05

    5. NY-26

    6. NY state senate

    7. PA state legislature

    8. NC state legislature

    9. CA-50 – I do not think Bilbray will lose. We can make him sweat though.

    10. MD-01

    11. Wildest dream: Promise Negron the moon and run him as a write-in for Mahoney’s seat.

    12. I am writing off Kanjorski.

    13. I will be delighted if Tom McClintock loses.

  8. CA-46: YES! We’re finally on the map… SERIOUSLY! 😀

    CA-03: OK, I’m a believer now! Durston is in it to win it.

    NV-03: Yay! Dina Titus was endorsed by the LV Sun! I hope this helps.

    NM-01: Any new polling here? NM seems to be quite strong for Obama. Are the coattails finally helping Martin Heinrich?

    CO-04: Is Betsy Markey running out of $$$$? And what is the DCCC doing to help here? I want to send her some last-minute $.

    President: I’m actually calling folks at the local Obama office in Irvine NOW to get volunteers to come in & make calls to Nevada. I even have my hotel room ready for Oct 31-Nov 5. Wish me luck! 😉

  9. AL-02: Can Bobby Bright finish it off?

    LA-01: I admit it, I believe.  ðŸ™‚

    LA-04: How will the general being in December affect the race?

    MI-07: With the NRCC giving up on Knollenberg, could Walberg be next?

    MN-06: I don’t think there are too many worse Republicans up for re-election than Bachman, and it appears we have a chance in this district.

    NE-02: It looks like Esch is within striking distance.  It would also be nice for Obama to pick up an EV.

    Of course, I’m rooting hard for Propositions 1 and 2 here in Michigan.  I fear for 2 – it may have went too far, at least as far as passibility goes.

  10.    Great news!  The DCCC is finally expanding the map beyond the conventional wisdom races.  I hope the Garcia-M. Diaz-Balart race is next.  But I’m real pleased that progressives such as Vic Wulsin and Tom Perriello are getting help.

  12. We’re 2 weeks out and I think everyone has an overall view of where the major races stand. We’ve already been given our October Surprise in the form of the economic crisis so little’s likely to change.

    What do you think will be the overall net pick-up for Dems in the House? Include the number of seats we pick up and the number of seats we will lose.

    No specifics necessary. James feel free to chip in if you so please.

  13.    My mole in a DC Democratic polling firm tells me that our candidates for Kentucky and Tennessee state legislatures are doing poorly.  I know you were dying to know that.

    1. I have a hard time believing a one-term congrresswoman would suddenly get the urge to abandon a safe house seat for a statewide race she’d have no chance of taking 40% of the vote in.  Hopefully Mitch Landrieu runs in 2010.  But either way I don’t think we can beat Vitter barring further scandels on his part.

    1. Well, when put that way, you’re right.  I am really curious about the Jefferson/Moreno showdown, though.  

  19. Is Virgil Goode getting hit for the $150,000 some dollar earmark for the theater that specializes in gay porn and high drug use yet?

    Just curious.

  20. I have been working at helping Obama spread the field against McCain.  

    Through my own stab at targeting, I identified a number of red states that might be competitive.

    My modest contributions have gone to those states and — within those states — to those Congressional, state and local races that seemed most competitive.

    Democratic campaigns in those races always hold promise of finding and being applied towards reaching critical, localized tensions pertaining to registration, persuasion, and get-out-the-vote.

    One of my red state targets is North Dakota.

    Democrats are somewhat competitive for the ND state senate, so a few months ago I sent a bit to the ND state party for their effort in state senate races.

    But I have not been able to identify specific, competitive ND races.

    So at this point — if I can come up with another dollar or two — I plan on sending it to the ActBlue fund established North Decoder, a ND progressive blogger (http://www.northdecoder.com/).

    I would expect a competent progressive political blogger to find action where they live and write.  

    1. Ms Kosmas has done a good job of fund raising, and the DCCC is fully behind her. You might get more bang for your buck giving to a darker horse candidate. Looks like a lot of races are showing unexpected potential right about now.

      In some places a little can go a long way. Barry Welch in the godforsaken part of Indiana, well, ok, the most godforsaken part, reported on dKos that he got about $600 from contributors from the site and that paid for radio ads in nine counties for five days. So you might take another look at the SSP Races to Watch list to make a big splash.

  22. KY-02

    MN-03

    CA-04

    AL-05

    LA-06

    NY-26

    NC state legislature

    NY state senate

    PA state legislature

    Just read – we are not doing well in MO and KY state legislatures. How badly are we doing?

    What are our chances of winning NY mayor(2009), Indianapolis mayor(2011 I think). The latter is needed for a strong foothold in Indiana.

  23. Ok this is the most amazing thing I have seen since I started paying attention to politics and fundraising.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

    UPDATE with fundraising numbers:

    24 hours ago, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann announced that all those who disagree with her are “Anti-American.”  Since then, the outpouring of support for my campaign has been extraordinary.  Since Congresswoman Bachmann’s outrageous remarks, my campaign has raised $438,346.57, and we’re working to reach $500,000 by 5 p.m. today.  Congresswoman Bachmann’s extreme ideology divides people, but her comments on MSNBC’s Hardball have united all of those who believe that I will jump start the ecomomy on Main Street by creating jobs and rebuilding our infrastructure.  As a Minister and Mayor, I brought people together.  I believe that we build by addition, not division.  I want to thank you all.  It is now clear that we have the momentum to win and I ask for your financial support.  I will keep everyone posted.

    Thank you,

    El Tinklenberg

  25. Where are those double digit leads over McCain?

    If we barely squeak thru in the presidential race (not a given) we may not get coattails for downballot.

  26. Best wishes to his family.  Thankfully his wife Mary survived.

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/…


    Car crash kills Pennsylvania state senator

    HARRISBURG, Pennsylvania (AP) — A longtime Pennsylvania state senator has died after his Cadillac collided head-on with a truck.

    Legislative leaders say Sen. James Rhoades died Saturday. He and his wife, Mary, were taken to a hospital after the crash Friday.

    Senate aides say Mary Rhoades’ injuries were not believed to be life-threatening. The accident is being investigated.

    The 66-year-old Republican had served for seven terms and was chairman of the Education Committee. He was campaigning for an eighth term.

    A Senate Republican spokesman says the party would have to get a court’s permission to remove Rhoades’ name from the ballot and replace him.

    He started in the Senate in 1981 and represents northeastern Pennsylvania’s coal country.

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