Mason-Dixon for Casper Star-Tribune (10/13-14, likely voters):
Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 43
David Herbert (L): 4
(n = 625)
Apparently Mason-Dixon liked what they saw with Research 2000‘s poll last week of the at-large representative’s race in Wyoming, because they reproduced the exact same numbers. The most noteworthy difference here is the inclusion of Libertarian David Herbert, which explains where some of that unaccounted-for 13% from the R2K poll may be going.
There’s still some bad news for Trauner: of the 9% who remain undecided in this poll, 75% are Republicans. (Only 16% are Democrats and 9% are independents.) On the other hand, there’s some good news, too: Mason-Dixon polled this race for the Star-Tribune at this point two years ago, and Trauner trailed Barbara Cubin by 7%, but went on to lose by less than 1,000 votes.
(H/T: Andy Dufresne)
http://dumpbachmann.blogspot.c…
If you keep reading, it sounds like El has broken 640K raised since Friday’s incident.
It is puzzling that the DCCC has not spent any money here, especially since it is both cheap and Gary was on the original red to blue list. Given the polls putting Gary consistently at around 44 since May, the only reasonable explanation is that his campaign told them to stay out.
I’ve read that like in 2006, Trauner has resisted running any negative ads. While that might be nuts in other states, in Wyoming he might need to do that to win as a Democrat in Wyoming. There’s a reason is personal favorables are so good according to both R2K and M-D.