Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 10/2 in parens):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (48)
Dino Rossi (Prefers GOP Party): 48 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Ordinarily, there would be no reason to pay much attention to a 2-point shift in a close race, other than as statistical noise. This race, though, has been a game of inches throughout, and has seen very little fluctuation, as most voters seem to have just locked in their preferences following the super-close 2004 election.
This may represent Gregoire being able to finally grab hold of Obama’s coattails for a last-minute boost, small as it may be. (The most recent Elway Poll may confirm this; while the overall spread there seems way too optimistic, it certainly measured movement in her direction.) It may be that Gregoire (or NARAL, on her behalf) finally found an advertising groove that works, hitting Rossi on being pro-life (a fact previously unknown to a surprisingly large number of moderate suburban women voters). Or, as always, it may just be float within the MoE.
blah blah blah Prefers GOP Party blah blah blah.
This race could be called as early a 6:00 when the polls close in parts of Indiana. If Obama looks like he can win there, it’s over. I think Democrats will be a lot more likely to want to vote for the first African-American president, which could give a huge boost down ticket.
At least that’s my opinion.
It’s a 51-48 outcome for Gregoire, I gather. It’s the weirdest result of the election cycle in my book- an 8-10% change of electorate since the last governor election and very small shift. Maybe Washingtonians simply hate the office of governor or something.
Who was the last Rep Governor of WA? Did they have a repub before Gregoire?