Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):
Dennis Shulman (D): 40 (34)
Scott Garrett (R-inc): 47 (49)
Other: 2 (2)
Undecided: 11 (15)
(MoE: ±5%)
This is a tidy improvement over R2K’s first poll in this district, reflecting in part the fact that Shulman went up on the air between the two surveys. It also helps explain Scott Garrett’s wild freak-out and sick smears against Shulman. (My favorite: Shulman, an ordained rabbi, is “soft on Israel.” Uh huh.) You may also recall that earlier this week, the Club for Growth, which usually cares naught for incumbents, endorsed Garrett and may be getting ready to drop some bucks on his behalf.
In this expensive NYC metro district, Shulman will likely need some outside help of his own if he is to unseat Garrett. There’s still time for the DCCC to come in with a big moneybomb in this (and many other) districts. (Last cycle, for instance, they nuked Charlie Bass in NH-02 on Halloween.) We’ll soon see if Shulman has the momentum to pull off a major upset here.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama 51-39 (it was 52-37 in the last poll).
I don’t like to repeat myself, but I’ll say it again: I’m really excited and bullish about this race. I think we can definitely pull it off. The state of New Jersey is going to go for Obama anyways, so coattails will definitely play an important part in the 5th. Besides, Bergen County as a whole is rapidly trending in the Democrats’ favor.
Note Garrett’s low favorables. Overall, he is at a pitiful 45/40 (+5). Even worse, he has a personal score with independents of 43/41 (+2). I have to believe that these over-the-top ads are going to make these numbers worse and worse. Conversely, Shulman is at 43/35 with indies.
The key is the independent vote, where Garrett leads 46-40, even though independents like his opponent better. I can’t believe I am saying this, but this seat looks winnable.
Garrett’s ridiculous attacks prove that while he is an ultra, ultra rightwinger, he forgets his district is not in Texas.
And if so does anyone know what part of the state is seeing the population loss? Hopefully it’s the conservative areas. NJ has independent redistricting so there’s nothing we can really do as far as that goes.