Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/20-21, likely voters):
David Boswell (D): 47
Brett Guthrie (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The last couple of polls we saw of this race didn’t give us much reason for optimism. SurveyUSA showed Guthrie pulling ahead by nine points after trailing Boswell earlier in the year, while a Boswell internal showed Guthrie erasing Boswell’s seven point lead and replacing it with a dead heat.
Both the DCCC and the NRCC are spending considerably on this R+13 open seat, but I’m gonna remain skeptical about this one, especially given all the blowback surrounding the DCCC’s ads.
I know it’s an open seat, but is an R+13 district in a state Obama will lose really a better pickup opportunity than various districts where the DCCC isn’t spending any money?
CA-46, R+6
NJ-05, R+4
NJ-04, R+0.9
IA-04, D+0
All of those are in states Obama will win by big margins.
Yes, I know it’s easier to pick up an open seat. I am just frustrated by some of the seats the DCCC is leaving on the table.
I would have never thought this race would be competitive. You gotta figure McCain will win this district with 65% of the vote.