Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Dina Titus (D): 47
Jon Porter (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±5%)
The numbers have bounced around quite a bit in this race in this swing district in the Las Vegas suburbs, ranging from a recent Mason-Dixon poll giving a 3-point edge to Porter to a Titus internal giving her a 9-point lead. Research 2000’s first poll of this race kind of splits the difference, finding Titus edging Porter by 2.
This is a district that has changed a lot in terms of registration numbers (moving from about even in ’06 to a 39,000 Dem edge now) and demographics, even since 2006 when Porter narrowly beat Harry Reid staffer Tessa Hafen and Titus narrowly won the district in her unsuccessful governor’s race. Also heartening are the early voting numbers: Titus is up 56-45 among early voters… and the presidential numbers, with Obama leading McCain in this D+1 district 48-44.
the Mason Dixon polls on this race are totally crap. Why do you even give them credibility when just over 200 people were polled and the moe is from here to the sun. DKos’ R2K poll is the first real independent poll of this race and is probably spot on as it is right between Titus’ and Porter’s internal polling.
At least Dina’s still standing! Still, the close race suggests to me that the Freedom’s Crotch “Dina Taxes” attack ads may have been able to keep Porter on life support here. I hope Dina Titus & the DCCC are doing more to fight back & hit Porter on his truly scummy record. I so want to win this race next week!
….I was still predicting Titus to take out Porter. If Porter almost got whacked by second-tier challenger Tessa Hafen, I can’t see him withstanding this more aggressive push from Titus.
he’s going to go after Reid next cycle. If he loses, he’ll probably go get a lobbying job.