MD-01: Kratovil Within 4

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 40

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5%)

Ordinarily, you wouldn’t expect a Democrat to be within close range in an R+10, culturally conservative district like this one. However, Frank Kratovil has a number of things going for him. One, it’s an open-ish seat, where beloved moderate incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by Club for Growth nutcase Andy Harris… and Gilchrest gave his endorsement to Kratovil. And also, this is a case (like the Staten Island/Brooklyn split in NY-13) where geography plays a big role in a provincial district: Kratovil is a state’s attorney from the Eastern Shore, where the bulk of the district’s population lives, and Harris is a state senator from Baltimore County, a part of the state that’s not too popular on the Eastern Shore.

This appears to be the first public poll of the race, but Kratovil’s internal polls have shown him steadily gaining ground, culminating in a 2-point lead in an internal from several weeks ago. Harris still has built-in advantages in this conservative district (although the same sample finds McCain leading Obama only 47-43, so this district may not be R+10 much longer), but the polls suggest this may be one of our closest races next week.

13 thoughts on “MD-01: Kratovil Within 4”

  1. One guess is that Delaware is just west, and Biden may be having an impact. But I think also that McCain has a problem with farmers, of which I believe there are many on the eastern shore.

  2.    They always have strange internals.  Is it really possible that Obama is doing as well as Kratovil in the district?  That’s really hard to believe.

  4. http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

    Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)

    McClintock (R) 42 (41)

    Brown (D) 48 (46)

    Among early voters (13 percent of respondents)

    McClintock (R) 38

    Brown (D) 56

    Musgrave, Bachmann, McClintock and Sali all looking set to lose?  Someone pinch me, I’m dreaming.

  5. I’ll be more astonished than I can say.  You’ve got to see these people on the Eastern Shore.  If they can vote for a Dem, then the Republican Party is officially dead.

  6. When it says R+10 doesnt that mean more Republican than the nation as a whole?

    So if Obama is winning by 5-8 points nationally and losing this district by 3 then that would be 10 points worse than his national performance.  Or am I missing something?

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