SurveyUSA (10/25-26, likely voters, 10/11-12):
Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (46)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (41)
Dave Brownlow (C): 5 (7)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
That’s some very nice movement for Merk. Check out the broader trends:
With Merkley pulling ahead in poll after poll, SSP is changing our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic. Smith’s efforts to present a moderate profile have allowed him to survive in past elections, it increasingly seems like that won’t be enough this year, especially with Democratic voter registration numbers turning this state into a darker shade of blue.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 57-38 here according to the same poll.
The most important data is that Merkley leads by 10% among early voters – and that they represent HALF of the sample. Not only is Merkley leading, but he might already have won.
Campaign Diaries
Check it out. Of the 50% of already voted Merkley leads 51-41%. It would take a huge swing for Smith to get enough of the remaining 50% of votes not yet cast to win this thing.
Though I still cannot understand how 4% of those ALREADY VOTED are undecided. Did they already forget who they voted for?!?
questionable – according to http://elections.gmu.edu/early… (10/26) only 395,049 Oregonian ballots have been counted (1,851,671 voted in 2004). Maybe half have been mailed but not counted? Numbers are very encouraging, however.
I know you are guys are generally small c, conservative with your ratings but do you really think this race derserves the same rating as Alaska. The trend line is definitely good here and I think the Obama ad was IMO a knockout blow, but I can imagine a scenario how Smith wins. Stevens is now a convicted felon. I think the Alaska seat should be safe democrat.