There’s nothing like a scary public poll to get the internals flowing.
The Mellman Group for Jim Marshall (10/18-20, likely voters):
Jim Marshall (D-inc): 48
Rick Goddard (R): 31
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I’d like to believe this one, but let’s not forget that Mellman is the same pollster who said that Marshall was leading by 16 points right around this time in 2006 — and Marshall barely survived that race.
A copy of the poll’s press release is available below the fold.
http://www.sctimes.com/apps/pb…
They endorsed Bachmann in 06 and are pretty conservative leaning. The Star Tribune paper which is the metro paper that has some circulation in the district endorsed Tinklenberg despite not endorsing any other Dem candidate except Obama and some local candidates.
VA-05: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
VA-02: Lean Republican to Toss Up
PA-12: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
PA-10: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
NY-26: Lean Republican to Toss Up
NE-02: Lean Republican to Toss Up
KY-02: Lean Republican to Toss Up
FL-24: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
CA-04: Lean Republican to Toss Up
I’m guessing most of these shifts are based off of IE’s from NRCC and DCCC. For example, the NRCC has spend significant money in NY-26, NE-02, KY-02, CA-04 for sure. PA-12 is probably fueled by the recent polling.