MN-Sen: Coleman Pulls Ahead in New Poll

Rasmussen (10/28, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 39 (41)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 43 (37)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

So where did Coleman get all this mojo from? Rasmussen speculates that a strong recent debate performance, coupled with the Strib’s endorsement, has given the incumbent the upper hand.

Rasmussen isn’t my favorite pollster (although I do appreciate just how damned prolific they are), so I’d like to see what the other polling orgs have to say about the state of this race. In any case, this still feels very much like a tossup.

23 thoughts on “MN-Sen: Coleman Pulls Ahead in New Poll”

  1. Never heard of this pollster, but the numbers are similar to what SUSA showed for ID-01, so maybe these numbers are legit.

    http://images.dailykos.com/ima

    Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (pdf) 10/19-22.

    Likely voters. MoE ±4.4%

    ID-Sen

    Risch (R) 45

    LaRocco (D) 33

    ID-01

    Sali (R-Inc) 41

    Minnick (D) 48

  2. …..from a couple things.  The Minneapolis Star Tribune endorsed Coleman.  While newspaper endorsements rarely move the needle, when a paper with a left-wing reputation like the Strib endorses Coleman, it probably gives pause to some soft Franken supporters that this guy is “REALLY out in left field”.

    Furthermore, Barkley’s numbers are sliding.  Every since Barkley became a double-digit factor in this race, my contention is that Barkley needs to remain in that 15-19% window if Franken was gonna win.  Barkley’s now below 15%….and my assumption seems to be bearing fruit.

    This sample Rasmussen poll has a Presidential sample showing Obama leading by 12, so it’s not a disagreeable polling sample.  With that in mind, my confidence about Franken’s chances is diminishing.

  3. If not, we have no one to blame but Franken.  

    Incidentally, has Rasmussen had a good poll for Democrats this year?  I know I am exaggerating and they’re awesome, but man it seems like they really like to throw good water on Democratic prospects in a many, many races that don’t seem as bad for us.  

  4. Scott bullshitted his way through a plausbile explanation for the switch though. Message to Mr. Rasmussen: No one except for political geeks like me and hard partisians watch Senate debates.

    I think it’s a toss-up at this point. However, if I had a gun to my head and could only choose either Merkley or Franken, I’d choose Merkley without hesitation. If he wins this time, the seat is his until he dies or retires. Franken is going to have an incredibly hard time getting re-elected.  

  5. This sounds like good news for Franken coming late tonight in a new PPP poll:

    https://www.blogger.com/commen

    Tom Jensen said…

    Well I’d say probably the most important thing in this set of polls is the Minnesota Senate race, and although we will not have final numbers until this evening, I do not think the Mason Dixon and Rasmussen polls released there over the last 24 hours are correct.

    October 30, 2008 2:43 PM

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