Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-16):
Mark Begich (D): 58 (48)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 36 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (50)
Don Young (R-inc): 44 (44)
(MoE: ±4%)
Ted Stevens and Don Young have a combined 75 years of congressional seniority, but it looks like Alaskans are poised to blow that up and start over. Most notably, Stevens’ conviction accounted for a 20-point swing since the previous poll two weeks ago. But some of the spirit of cleaning-house seems to have even transferred over to Berkowitz, whose numbers jumped a little as well.
McCain still has a big advantage at the presidential level, 58-39, but this poll also sees Sarah Palin’s favorables dropping back to somewhat earthbound levels (65-35) after two months of constant airing of her dirty laundry.
great numbers. Turning 2/3s of Alaska’s Congressional delegation blue. what a year!
I know Alaska is a Republican state, but that 65% is ridiculous. She has completely embarassed her constituents.
That is officially 5 right off the bat plus OR which is heavily leaning our way and NC which is slightly so. MN is a toss-up and Georgia and Kentucky are Lean Rep, MS is probably a likely Rep and the rest aren’t going to happen barring a huge wave that sweeps all of the above into office easily and we are onto Texas, and Maine.
We really didn’t gain any in 2006 that were total shockers, we knew we could win all 6 of those. In big huge wave years, like 1980, how many shocker losses were there?
I dont think anyone expected him to lose either.
biggest 1980 Senate upset would have to be John East beating incumbent moderate Democrat Robert Morgan of North Carolina. Jesse Helms directly played a role in this upset.