SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (49)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (42)
Dave Brownlow (C): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Last summer, I had an informal phone conversation with someone fairly high up on the food chain over at the DSCC (which, I assure you, is not something I do everyday). At the time, Democrats still hadn’t recruited a top-tier candidate to run against Gordon Smith, and some folks in left blogistan (myself included) were worried that this opportunity was slipping away. The DSCC staffer, at that early time, seemed more enthusiastic about this race than any of the other Senate races on the table (remember, Virginia and New Mexico weren’t yet open seats at that time). I admit that I didn’t quite buy it.
But here we are, almost 18 months later, and Gordon Smith is going to lose:
He’s lost already. More than half of voters in Oregon have already voted (71% according to SUSA, 59% according to PPP), and those are going overwhelmingly to Merkley.
…I told you this a long time ago. 🙂
I didn’t think Gordo would lose or deserved to lose for just being stuck with Bush, but after those offensive ads about Merkley being a rapist supporter I decided he just had to go.
Can’t wait to hear from this one on Tuesday.