GMH’s Predictions, Part 1: Alaska through Missouri (in alphabetical order of abbreviation)

I put my predictions in the following format:

State-race (# of EV if presidential): margin, chance, result (change from Democratic perspective) (comments, if any)

Margin terms: up, up-dash, dash, down-dash, down.  These reflect my written shorthand.  An up-arrow (“up”) refers to a margin of 8 points or more for the Democrat.  An up-arrow with a dash through the tail (“up-dash”) means a margin of about 2-7 points in the Democrat’s favor.  A dash (“dash”) means a margin closer than that, or basically a toss-up.  (Substitute “Republican” for “Democrat” when you see “down” instead of “up”).

Chance terms: I use the same terms as SSP: “safe” means I can’t see a reasonable chance for the other party to win (barring something really crazy happening, basically); “likely” means that I feel I can safely predict that outcome but would be vulnerable to a strong challenge from the other side; “lean” means I feel that that side has only a narrow advantage; “tossup” means I think both sides are about evenly matched.

Result: “keep” means the incumbent party retains the seat; “gain” means the winning party wins the seat from the other side.  “change from Democratic perspective” means that “+1 House” refers to a gain of one Democratic House seat while “-1 House” refers to the loss of one Democratic House seat.

And before I begin: Be sure to join me (and hopefully other SSP people!) on IRC on election night!  Once again, our chat room is #swingstateproject on the Chat4All network (irc.chat4all.org).  Hope to see you there!

Edit: Added LA-02.

Now, here we go!  (below the fold)  Part 2 coming soon, before the end of the day!

PART ONE: Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri

AK-Pres: down, safe R, R keep

AK-Sen: up, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

AK-AL: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

AL-02: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

AL-03: down-dash, lean R, R keep

AL-05: up-dash, lean D, D keep

AR-Pres: down, likely R, R keep

AZ-Pres: down-dash, lean D, R keep

AZ-01: up, lean D, D gain (+1 House) (where are the polls?)

AZ-03: down-dash, lean R, R keep

AZ-05: up, safe D, D keep

AZ-08: up, safe D, D keep

CA-03: down-dash, lean R, R keep

CA-04: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House) (You’ll be a winning candidate, Charlie Brown!)

CA-11: up, safe D, D keep

CA-26: down-dash, likely R, R keep

CA-42: down, safe R, R keep

CA-44: down, safe R, R keep

CA-45: down, safe R, R keep

CA-46: dash, lean R, R keep (sorry, but I think it’s unlikely.  but I’d LOVE to be wrong about this!)

CA-50: down-dash, lean R, R keep

CO-Pres: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+9 EV)

CO-Sen: up, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

CO-04: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

CO-05: down-dash, likely R, R keep

CO-06: down-dash, safe R, R keep

CT-02: up, safe D, D keep

CT-04: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

CT-05: up, likely D, D keep

CT-GA-014: down, likely R, R keep (this is my state house district!  I’m voting for Kathy Hale!  I have no polling data so this is just a basic guess, but I hope I’m wrong!)

DE-AL: down, safe R, R keep (nope, not this year)

DE-Gov: up, safe D, D keep

FL-Pres: dash, toss-up, D gain (+27 EV)

FL-05: down, safe R, R keep

FL-06: down, safe R, R keep

FL-07: down-dash, safe R, R keep

FL-08: dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

FL-09: down, safe R, R keep

FL-10: down, safe R, R keep

FL-12: down-dash, safe R, R keep

FL-13: down-dash, likely R, R keep

FL-15: down, likely R, R keep

FL-16: double down, safe R, R gain (-1 House)

FL-18: down-dash, tossup, R keep (again, I’d love to be wrong!)

FL-21: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

FL-24: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

FL-25: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

GA-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

GA-Sen: dash, tossup, runoff (I’m not predicting runoff results at this time)

GA-01: down-dash, lean R, R keep (again, I’d love to be wrong!)

GA-03: down, likely R, R keep (so much for Mr. “Uppity”‘s come-uppance)

GA-06: down-dash, likely R, R keep

GA-08: up-dash, likely D, D keep

GA-12: up, likely D, D keep

HI-none: (sorry, no competitive federal-level or gubernatorial races in Hawaii)

IA-Pres: up, safe D, D gain (+7 EV)

IA-04: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IA-05: dash, lean R, R keep

ID-Sen: down, likely R, R keep

ID-01: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IL-06: down-dash, lean R, R keep

IL-08: up, likely D, D keep

IL-10: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IL-11: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

IL-13: down-dash, likely R, R keep

IL-14: up-dash, likely D, D keep

IL-18: down, likely R, R keep

IN-Pres: down-dash, tossup, R keep

IN-02: up, safe D, D keep

IN-03: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IN-04: down-dash, lean R, R keep

IN-06: down-dash, lean R, R keep

IN-07: up, safe D, D keep

IN-08: up, safe D, D keep

IN-09: up, likely D, D keep

IN-Gov: down-dash, likely R, R keep

KS-Sen: down, likely R, R keep

KS-02: up-dash, lean D, D keep

KS-03: up-dash, likely D, D keep

KY-Sen: down-dash, lean R, R keep (OH HOW I’D LOVE TO BE WRONG)

KY-01: down-dash, likely R, R keep

KY-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

KY-03: up, likely D, D keep

KY-04: down, likely R, R keep

LA-Sen: up, likely D, D keep

LA-01: down-dash, lean R, R keep (and I’d love to be wrong here too!)

LA-02: up, safe D, D keep (the point of this race is whether Moreno can succeed in defeating the indicted Jefferson; Jefferson seems likely to win at this point, unfortunately)

LA-04: general election occurs later

LA-06: up-dash, likely D, D keep

LA-07: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I have no polling on this race…)

MA-Sen: double up, safe D, D keep

MD-01: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

ME-Sen: down, likely R, R keep

ME-01: up, likely D, D keep

MI-Pres: up, likely D, D keep

MI-07: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

MI-08: down, likely R, R keep

MI-09: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

MN-Pres: up, likely D, D keep

MN-Sen: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 Senate)

MN-01: up, likely D, D keep

MN-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

MN-03: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

MN-06: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

MO-Pres: dash, tossup, D gain (+11 EV)

MO-06: down-dash, likely R, R keep

MO-09: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)