Hays Research Group (11/2, likely voters):
Mark Begich (D): 49
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 42
Other: 2
(MoE: ±4.9%)
And for the at-large House race:
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49
Don Young (R-inc): 43
Other: 1
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Sounds about right to me. The fact that these two crumb-bums (Young and Stevens) are polling even in the low 40s is a testament to just how crusty of a GOP-loving state Alaska is.
But here’s a fun bonus finding: the McCain/Palin ticket leads Obama/Biden by only 48-45 according to this poll. Amusing!
Both Barack Obama and Ted Stevens will hit 45 percent. I agree.
I think the Obama/McCain number is an outlier. Every other poll has McCain higher. It’s possible that Stevens is helping to drag him down a bit though.
I do think Stevens and Young are toast, but they’ll probably do decently. I agree with the other commenter that they could feasibly reach ~ 45%.
The Obama-McCain numbers seem like an outlier and may indicate a Democratic friendly sample. That would make the Senator and Representative races much closer than what I thought or hoped they would be. Or, perhaps, Obama really is about this close to McCain. I’d prefer stronger numbers for Begich and Berkowitz, especially from a Democratic pollster.
Win this race. But, the fact that neither of these guys are at 50, is kind of scary.
that the Presidential race has tightened in Alaska. The GOP in Alaska has 2 factions (the Palin Conservative faction) and the more moderate faction (Stevens, Young). The moderate GOP faction is not that happy with Palin and her comments towards Uncle Ted.
Alaska’s politics is much like Middle East politics.