SurveyUSA is out with a new round of North Carolina polls, and the results look pretty similar to other recent polls (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/18-20 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 50 (46)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (45)
Chris Cole (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Bev Perdue (D): 48 (43)
Pat McCrory (R): 47 (46)
Mike Munger (L): 4 (7)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
McCain leads Obama by a single point here, 49-48, but turnout will determine it all. Among those who have already voted (57% of the sample), Hagan leads Dole by 58-39, Perdue leads McCrory by 55-41, and Obama leads McCain by 56-41.
A Hagan win seems like a safe bet right now (and how sweet that is, really), but the Presidential and Gubernatorial races seem set to come down to every last vote.
has consistently been the most favorable pollster to Republians in North Carolina.
Are accurate Liddy Dole, like Gordon Smith, has already lost. By my off-hand calculations in order for Dole to win she’d have to get 70% of election day voters.
The final polls seem to be trending his way in NC. However Obama more than offsets that potential loss with leads in most OH polls, all VA polls, and some polls out of states like IN. Still looks like Obama will end up around 350 EV’s.
Obama will win NC. I think the polls are probably understating his lead by 1%-3% (see Cellphone effect). Also, since his strong supporters have already voted, his incredible GOTV operation here will get out a lot of marginal supporters tomorrow.
Looking at the PPP internals, we probably need to top a 70% turnout for McCain to win (assuming he wins by 14% tomorrow) – not likely. In the end Obama will carry my state by 50-150 thousand votes.
I’ve become a fan of your ongoing “(Insert Republican Officeholder’s Name Here) is going to lose” headers.
Can we get one for Liddy? Pleeeasssse.
I hear Dole made a big loan to her own campaign recently. What is the law on that? When she loses does she in effect lose that “loan” since she can no longer raise money for office?