IN-03, KY-02: County Baselines – Swing State Project

Two of the first House races that will begin reporting this evening are Indiana’s 3rd District and Kentucky’s 2nd. These are two incredibly tough districts — IN-03 is R+16, and KY-02 is R+13. If Democrats can defeat GOP Rep. Mark Souder in Indiana or pick off the open seat in KY-02, tonight is going to be a huge night. If we fall short in either, well, it still could be big.

Just as Crisitunity did yesterday in his county-by-county baseline analysis of key statewide battlegrounds, let’s take a look at how the Republicans fared in each of these districts in 2006. Here’s IN-03:

County	Souder	%	Hayhurst	%
Allen	41,901	50	41,163	50
Elkhart	15,644	61	9,887	39
Kosciusko	11,882	64	6,656	36
Noble	6,243	54	5,247	46
DeKalb	5,630	54	4,890	46
Whitley	5,300	54	4,503	46
Steuben	4,716	52	4,351	48
LaGrange	3,613	55	2,986	45
Total	94,929	54	79,683	46

And KY-02:

County	Lewis	%	Weaver	%
Daviess	13,936	49	14,378	51
Warren	15,666	58	11,198	42
Hardin	14,629	57	10,901	43
Bullitt	10,679	55	8,712	45
Shelby	7,046	56	5,637	44
Barren	6,784	57	5,073	43
Nelson	5,087	47	5,792	53
Taylor	5,720	65	3,020	35
Grayson	5,435	63	3,183	37
Meade	4,566	54	3,941	46
Breckinridge	4,256	59	2,925	41
Marion	2,353	40	3,544	60
Spencer	3,268	59	2,294	41
Green	3,338	71	1,374	29
LaRue	2,565	58	1,871	42
Hart	2,372	55	1,972	45
Edmonson	2,414	58	1,717	42
Ohio	2,225	61	1,414	39
Washington	1,902	53	1,708	47
Jefferson	1,603	46	1,868	54
Hancock	1,580	49	1,669	51
Total	117,424	55	94,191	45

As the early returns come in, these baselines should be helpful in order to determine just how strong of a shot Democrats Mike Montagano and David Boswell have. For what it’s worth, I’m expecting a 2006-style defeat in KY-02, but that shouldn’t get us too down — Boswell hasn’t run a particularly impressive race.

4 thoughts on “IN-03, KY-02: County Baselines”

I’m far more optimistic about that race than KY-02. Probably due to Souder’s poor performance in 2006 and Hayhurst’s solid campaign this year.

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