184 thoughts on “Election Night Liveblog Thread #3”

  5. has Obama winning, Titus winning, Derby falling behind, Copening & Breeden & Park winning (pickup of state Senate majority), and at least +3 in the state Assembly (+2 in open seats, Martin beats Christensen).

    Blue Nevada ahead, but for Governor and Nevada 2nd…..

  7. The Goodies

    AL-02 Rep. Bright

    AZ-01 Rep. Kirkpatrick

    CO-04 Rep. Markey

    CT-04 Rep. Himes

    FL-08 Rep. Grayson

    FL-24 Rep. Kosmas

    NC-08 Rep. Kissell

    NM-01 Rep. Heinrich

    NM-02 Rep. Teague

    NY-13 Rep. McMahon

    NY-25 Rep. Maffei

    NY-29 Rep. Massa

    PA-03 Rep. Dahlkemper

    VA-11 Rep. Connolly

    The Badies

    FL-16 Rep. Feeney

    LA-06 Rep. Cassidy

    TX-22 Rep. Olson

    Oh, and in Arizona Prop 102 (to amend the constitution so thay gays aren’t entitled to basic civil rights) based with 56% of the vote.  Lovely.  

    Prop 8 is still very much up in the air, but Yes is at 53% with 24% of precents reporting.

  8. Think we’ll win this one. Just parts of two counties left and I don’t think Harris can get 4,000 votes from them. We’ll see though, but I would say looking somewhat good for Kratovil.

  11. Governors mansions

    D = 28 —> 29

    R = 21 <— 22

    Senate

    D = 51 —> 56

    R = 41 <— 49

    (Three Outstanding)

    House

    D = 236 —> 249

    R = 170 <— 199

    (16 Outstanding)

  13. Only 5,500 deficit MN-Sen 82% reporting (42-42-15)

    Saxby will get 50% (not enough Chambliss votes left)

    Merkley 10K up 47% reporting (48-47)

  14. Still 5% left in the main county that went to Kilroy. If those precincts go like the rest, she’ll win.

  22. US SENATOR

    Total

    Number of Precincts 438

    Precincts Reporting 195 44.5 %

    Times Counted 128169/495731 25.9 %

    Total Votes 126866

    Begich, Mark DEM 57710 45.49%

    Bird, Bob AI 5357 4.22%

    Gianoutsos, Ted NA 454 0.36%

    Haase, Fredrick D. LIB 866 0.68%

    Stevens, Ted REP 62153 48.99%

    Write-in Votes 326 0.26%

    No idea where in state these results are from

  23. We lost in MN-03. Say hello to Rep. Erik Paulsen.

    Ugh, ugh, ugh.

    I can’t believe it after we outspent them by 1 million with such a damn good candidate.

    And looks like we’ll lose in MN-Sen and MN-06.

    Couldn’t this election have nicer frosting? The cake is great but this frosting makes me sick.

  27. Jackson won it for him.  LA-06 was won 48-40.  How many Jackson supporters would have voted for Cassidy?  Far less than 2%.  

  29. I may get to boast concerning my predictive powers, given that I said that Ashwin Madia sucked, but I fear that Paulsen is going to need a solid competitor and Mads may grab that spot again. Meanwhile, MN-06 is going to slip away from us unless we make the new district have slightly less crazies.

    It’s a pity that many of the projected new congressmen fell through. Still, Alan Grayson is a good signal that pure oppostional work has benefits and Virgil Goode’s defeat shows (once again for Virginia, very happily contrary to my predictions,) that heavily Republican seats are still vulnerable.

    Ready the 2010 targets immediately. Don’t let the bastards breathe. And this time, I hope you can win AZ and AR.

  30. seriously?

    Also, this perhaps teaches us yet another lesson: NEVER underestimate the ability of your enemy to throw a monkey wrench into ANYTHING and EVERYTHING that you have.

  34. Not so much qith quantity of seats, but some missed opportunities to pick up seats that are trending towards us and hold them for the foreseeable future.

    I feel like some of the seats we grabbed tonight are 1-term holds similar to Boyda, Cazayoux, Lampson.

    I could see us winning ID-01 tonight and losing in 2010, same with quite a few other districts.  Then in 2010 we could be back to where we are now or worse.

    We have maximized New England and most of the west coast.  Even VA and AL came up nice tonight.

    Time to focus infrastrucutre for 2010 in MI, MN, MO and OH.  We need to solidiy the midwest, especially in an economic downturn when they can’t vote for social issues over economic ones.

    So, we pick up 20 seats and its a disappointment, my how far we’ve come since 2002….

  37. Isn’t she from the moderate wing of the KS republican party?  Just trying to take away something positive from that race.  IT doesn’t sound like we’re getting another Ryun for that seat.

  41. I know y’all are disappointed but 375 EV, +6 Sen and +20-25 House is a landslide. NC/Ind should have been called for Obama  an hour ago and MS will go Obama barely too. The challenge will be not to fuck up the first 100 days. If we don’t totally mess it up the Repugs will be out of power longer than the Tories in Britain. Good night.

  43. what the heck are these people thinking.  I certaintly hope these precincts are from Republican friendly areas  because neither of those corrupt bastards deserve re-election

  45. God, if Alaskans send Ted Stevens back, we ought to just let Todd Palin get his way.

    Not worried about OR.  Portland is yet to come in – I like Merk’s chances.

    Minnesota looks like its headed to a recount.  Let’s hope Al can pull it off – he’ll make a great Senator.  Still 13% to come in in Minneapolis, and 32% in Duluth.  I’m cautiously optimistic.

    And OBAMA!!!  He totally crushed, but it’s beginning to look like a bit of a lonely landslide…

  48. I really believe that’s what we are seeing in a lot of House races tonight.  Voters knew Obama was going to win big and might have had second thoughts in contributing to giving democrats TOO BIG of a majority.

  49. D-Trip outspent Cole across the board, astronomically and we’re still only looking at 16-24 Margin gained.  Are you f’in kidding me?

  52. Would someone kindly explain what Alaskans are smoking?  Please?  I’m getting ready to rant.

    No, seriously, it’s not that they’re voting Republican.  They’re voting for a guy who just got convicted and is awaiting sentencing.  That’s not loyalty, that’s stupidity.  It’s not even that the likelihood of his holding office is zero, as he will be impeached and thrown out of Congress in the lame duck session and again in the new Congress if necessary.  I find no other analogy than an abused wife who is psychologically unable to leave her husband.  I do not like that analogy, and I understand how shocking and revolting it is to use – and it’s still the only one that fits.  And I have heard of how proudly they defended him after he came back with the conviction!  NO.

    Seriously, Alaska.  Stop, tell yourself you are electing a convicted felon who is being charged with the next thing to bribery on your dime and while representing yourself, and ask yourself if you feel pride in flaunting the laws of your country.

  59. PA-06: Gerlach beats a nobody 52-48%.  Why did we let this guy slide?  We dumped hundreds of thousands on blood red districts in Kentucky and Indiana and came up way short.  And here we let a Dem-leaning district send a weak Republican back to Congress.

    1. is ‘Rooney’.

      But it’s at bottom only a 51% R performance district with a Democratic trend.  Shouldn’t be hard to win it back with a good candidate.

    1. The down-ticket races in Iowa are not going particularly well. Our challengers in IA-04 and IA-04 didn’t do any better than our challengers in 2006, despite raising more money and campaigning more actively.

      In the Iowa House, we picked up at least a couple of seats but lost a couple and just missed on a few other potential pickups.

      In the Iowa Senate, we may have a net gain of one or two seats, but at least one of our incumbents has lost.

      Obama won convincingly, and Harkin won by almost 25 points, yet they didn’t have coat-tails as far as I can tell.

      Don’t know if there was a lot of ticket-splitting or if too many Democrats just left the down-ticket races blank on their ballots.

  65. Just Charleston is left and she’s winning it huge. There’s a chance she could grab another 16,000 votes there and win the seat.

  66. Saxby at 50.3% with 98% reporting.  Can we do this?  The absentees and the provisionals have to be enough to leave the outcome in doubt over the next several days, at least.

    btw, Franken has narrowly pulled ahead, and given which counties are still outstanding, I’m starting to feel more optimistic about this one.

    I remain confident about Oregon, Portland has barely reported and Merkley is still keeping it close.

    Alaska…who knows?

  68. if Ketner holds this margin in Charleston and my math is right (which at this hour, is questionalbe) Linda Ketner will win this district.  

    1. Paulsen was just announced the winner as well. It does look good for Franken though.

      And at least we kicked out Musgrave and Goode.

  69. OH-01 Driehaus makes the improbable comeback winning 52-48 with 99% reporting

    NV-02 Heller seems to have held off Derby leading 51-42 with 41% reporting

    MI-11 McCotter pulls out a squeaker over Larkin leading 50-46 with 96% reporting

  71. I haven’t kept track of the math for GA-Sen but MN-Sen’s margin is back down to 1003 in Franken’s favor.

  72. MI-11 which would have been a easy pickup with a Peters quality candidate and PA-06 which would have been another PA-03 with some DCCC cash even with our terrible candidate.

    2. candidate would have been a thousand times better — and probably won the seat.

      this stupid pledge/rule that you bow out after the dfl convention is ridiculous.  this is why we lost. for all the hype madia got from the blogs — he never stood a chance here. she would have won if we had just thought for a second about how the district would react, and not always having to nominate the most “progressive” dem. ugh!

    2. She would have lost by double digits.

      Edina Mayor Jim Hovland, former Republican who ran for the seat for a time is my hope.

    3. Bonoff might work. But let’s be honest – risky shots won today, shoe-ins didn’t.

      Bonoff works if she can subsume her campaign into the former group. And if she can’t pull off miracles, then we’re fucked.

  79. It seems that all 100% precincts are from everywhere but Washoe county (and a small part of modestly Republican Douglas), the rest being very Republican. Only 7% have come from Washoe county, but this includes the early vote. However, could the margin from Washoe county, thanks to a rather impressive performance by Democrats in Carson City (won it!), actually put Derby over the top by 9%? This is, afterall, the major population center in this district which has yet to be even counted, and seems to be going nicely for Obama…

    1. Not sure the number of seats.  But so far in state legislatures we’ve picked up:

      Ohio House

      Wisconsin House

      New York Senate

      Delaware House

      I’m sure we’ll get plenty more chambers.

    1. We haven’t picked up much of anything. Didn’t win any Senate seats. What a way to blow a wave year.

  82. GA-Sen, MN-Sen, AK-Sen, AK-AL, SC-01, ID-01, NV-02.

    In all of them we are currently down except ID-01.

  85. +500 for Shameless and +3500 for Martin or so.

    Also, I forgot to add OR-Sen to the races to watch list.

    1. But this is Kansas, after all.  The difference as I understand it between the “Moderate” wing and the “Conservative” wing is that the former is relatively mainline conservative and but a little less obsessed with social issues, while the latter is comprised of pure, unadulterated wingnuttery.

      So, yes, she’ll be better than Ryun, but she’s not going to be the next Jennifer Dunn or Connie Morella.

    1. Maybe a lot of republicans realized that if they elect Stevens they will in effect be voting for a republican who will replace him.  Sort of like “punch Foley for Negron” in 2006.

  89. Spoke to the Ketner campaign about an hour ago and they will not concede until all votes counted. As of now, Brown leads by about 15k votes (53-47), but there are still 35k absentee ballots in Charleston County alone that have not been counted. The Ketner folks feel confident that a majority of these votes will break their way. Also, Berkley County votes are still being tallied. People were waiting to vote as late as 11 p.m. EST.

  91. I think we should win this one if the patterns hold.  Per CNN, Franken was up 2,270 votes with 98% reported.  I estimated votes for all counties that did not have 100% reported based on currently reported vote shares and amount of precincts outstanding in those counties.  I calculate that Franken gets another 19,063 votes and Coleman gets another 14,037 votes.  Of course, outstanding precincts may not split the same as reported precincts in those counties, but it is looking good.

  94. A gay marriage ban in California

    Not a single House seat pick-up in Minnesota or for that matter, other states we expected some gimmy states, like New Jersey.

    Obama won and all, but I cant help but feel shafted.  Especially the gay marriage ban in Cali, what a huge fucking set back.  Sorry for swearing but fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck!!!!!!!!  UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Boy am I sick of being treated like a second class citizen.

    On a positive note, I was privileged enough to be assigned to escort the mayor of Minneapolis around my campus and he is a major contentder for governor in 2010.  My litmus test for that caucus is if you support gay marriage and RT Rybak does so alas, he’s in my top 3.   Not only does he support gay marriage but he is funny and really personable.  

    1. Most of the Dem districts are in. And most of the bush is still out – and Stevens and Young always do really well there.

    2. The Alaska House race is less of a priority given Berkowitz would very likely only hold the seat for 2 years.  Butthe Senae seat we would get for 6 years.  That one is huge.

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