Some new names cropping up in the bid to replace Sen. Obama:
As of Wednesday, the short list of potential Obama replacements included: Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) and Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), state Comptroller Dan Hynes (D), state Veterans Affairs Director Tammy Duckworth (D), retiring state Senate President Emil Jones (D), state Sen. Kwame Raoul (D), and marketing consultant Dan Seals (D), who lost his second consecutive race last night to Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.).
I don’t know if Seals has a real shot at this, and his selection would probably cheese off some long-time pols who might perceive that he didn’t “wait his turn.” But regardless, he’d be an excellent, excellent choice. I think he would represent Illinois well and would be a strong candidate when the seat is up again in 2010.
No thanks.
Dan would make a fantastic Senator – Period.
Just because conservative Democrats in the 10th voted for Kirk does not mean they would statewide imho.
That list doesn’t look too hot. Still, the most promising of the options Blago are considering look to be:
– Dan Hynes
– Jan Schakowsky
And maybe, just maybe, Tammy Duckworth might fare better statewide than she did in the more red-leaning IL-06 in 2006. Still, I don’t know if we should take that risk unless we know Duckworth can wow & dazzle Illinois as Senator. Dan Hynes is probably the safest bet, while Jan Schakowsky can probably provide the most “bang for the buck”, meaning the strongest progressive advocacy while also being able to win in 2010.
Most of those mentioned so far are from the Chicago area and there are good options in this list.
But, nominating someone from downstate has been a winning formula in the past: Paul Simon, Dick Durbin.
would be very unlikely but could be a non-Duckworth compromise pick.
for both duckworth and seals. there are talented, experienced people with electoral records – try one of them.
Those from the Chicago area, please tell us why Seals so underperformed. What were his weaknesses? If the rest of us know what went wrong, it will be easier to decide if he would be a good pick or not.
As a life long Illinois resident, here are my thoughts on some of the prospective candidates:
Dan Seals: I like Dan Seals a lot personally, but do not wish to see him selected here. 2 6%+ losses in a clearly Democratic district is not very impressive to me. Why would we have a two-time loser run statewide then? What has Seals accomplished in politics? I’m not suggesting he would lose, I simply wonder why he is even being considered.
Tammy Duckworth: My preferred choice, and a much better one than Seals. Yes, she lost too, but she lost in a R+4 district (not D+4) by just 2%. Also, she has been heading veterans affairs in Illinois for two years now, so she has something of a statewide profile.
Jesse Jackson Jr: Probably the worst possible choice for a couple reasons. First of all, Jackson Jr. publicly trashed IL-11 candidate Debbie Halvorson this cycle over her support for the proposed Will County airport. IN the article, a Jackson aide even admitted that he didnt want to see Halvorson elected because it would deminish his clout on the issue. I dont care what his progressive punch score is, thats not the kind of Democrat we need. Furthermore, the Jackson family is not popular at all outside of Cook County, and I would bet that he would poll the worst of any Democratic candidate to prove it.
Dan Hynes: A safe choice… thats really all there is to say about Hynes. He lost to Obama in the 2004 Senate primary, and he’s been a graceful team player as State Comptroller. He’s a machine-type and pretty non-descript.
By floating Seals name Blagojevich hopes to curry favor with Dem activists.
He may have no intention of appointing Seals. Blagojevich merely wants credit for mentioning him.
OTOH, Seals does have some benefit.
It would be hard for Black pols to get traction with the argument that Blago should have appointed a Black candidate since Seals is Black.
Seals is a suburban candidate.
And going to a non-Springfield candidate bypasses whatever pecking order those people think exists.
I stand by what I wrote earlier:
Seals does seem to fit the criteria I identified.
Is Seals acceptable to Obama? IIRC Seals was the only Illinois House candidate for whom Obama made a commercial (radio).
Is Seals acceptable to Blagojevich? Blago brought Seals’ name into the game.
Will Seals inspire a backlash from a key constituency? Jan Schakowsky and Jesse Jackson, Jr. aren’t key constituencies. I see no reason for Daley or Madigan to object.
Seals seems to be a good fit.
If so why? His approval rating is 4% in the latest Ramsussen poll. Heck, that approval rating makes former Governor Taft of Ohio and Fletcher of KY look like rockstars in comparison.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
The fairest thing to do is pick the runner-up in the 2004 Senate election – Alan Keyes.
OK, I’m kidding, but did anyone notice that Keyes was on several states’ presidential ballots this year and finished about 20th? This guy is truly the definition of delusional megalomaniac, replacing Ralph Nader, who at least had a decades-long record of accomplishment before becoming delusional.
On a serious note, I am a resident of Illinois and I strenuously object to all of the people who have insisted on this post that Blago should pick someone who can win in 2010. He should do the OPPOSITE.
He should pick someone who promises to NOT run for election in 2010, possibly an older person like Emil Jones or Roland Burris who can cap his career by being a senator for two years.
Trying to pick someone who can win in 2010 takes the decision out of the hands of us voters because the new incumbent will have a huge and unfair advantage. What Illinois needs is a robust campaign among numerous qualified people, not an attempt to fix a primary and, thus, an election because the Illinois GOP is dead (only Mark Kirk could be competitive).
Illinois is a corrupt, anti-democratic state where fathers frequently act unethically to fix elections for their children (Lipinski, Stroger, Beavers, Jones) or just use their naked political power to do the same thing (Madigan, Hynes, Jackson). The success of someone who got there by merit (Barack Obama) should prove how important it is to have a genuine election.
Shalom,
ZWrite
PS: I’m now answering this question – “Weak Seals: Those from the Chicago area, please tell us why Seals so underperformed. What were his weaknesses? If the rest of us know what went wrong, it will be easier to decide if he would be a good pick or not.”
Answer: Mark Kirk is perhaps the most liberal Republican in the U.S. House of Reps. He is basically a social liberal, an economic conservative, and a foreign policy moderate. He is low-key, intelligent, and is regarded by voters in his district as an independent as opposed to a Republican or Democratic partisan. His election proves that Americans want problem-solvers, not ideologues. I’m not aware of Seals doing anything wrong in his campaign, but he is inexperienced, unproven, and may or may not be a problem-solver or ideologue. By the way, Kirk advertised heavily on Air America so he was targeting liberals who want congressmen who are more independent than ideological.
Kirk will probably run for statewide office. If not, he will be beaten when the Illinois legislature redraws his district to make it more Democratic or he will be lumped into the same district as Republican Peter Roskam.
Second PS – Rahm Emanuel is the WRONG choice for Obama’s chief of staff. He has a personality problem that leads to stupid and incompetent decisions like funneling millions of dollars raised by the national Democratic Party Congressional Committee to the campaign of Tammy Duckworth (2006 Congressional campaign for Henry Hyde’s seat) while spending NOTHING on numerous campaigns that could have resulted in an additional 10 seats for Dems in 2006.
(Emanuel was ripped by Dems in the Hyde district for taking sides in a primary Duckworth won 41-40 and spent millions just to prove he was right; even if she won, the money was a waste.)
You have to live in Chicago to understand how bad Emanuel’s pro-Duckworth decision was in 2006. He literally flushed millions of dollars down the toilet because the Chicago media market covers about 15 congressional districts and, thus, 90 percent plus of the people who saw the endless Duckworth TV ads were outside her district. Emanuel is a moron.
I’m done venting.
But 2010 isn’t likely to be that way. Seals is a decent guy but anybody would struggle with the stain of having lost twice already to the same opponent, statewide or not.
If one assumes Blagojevich gets whacked by the U.S. Attorney or in the Dem primary then Seals should be in good shape.
The most likely gubernatorial candidate will be Lisa Madigan. He father will go to the mat to get Dems to the polls.
If Obama and the Dem Congress are perceived as competent and making progress, Seals would be the favorite.
We need more women in Congress. Look, if Blagoevich can win statewide in Illinois, then I think Dan Seals can win also. Illinois is a very Democratic state these days.
/snark (Anyone remember that R-Pres. Primary debate?)
he is likely working out some deal so that this helps Lisa take the Gov’s mansion.
remember Blago was the first Dem Gov in a long time.
Seals can’t make it through a Dem primary without some machine support.
I’m glad I’m not the only one here who likes Schakowsky. She’s also my #1 pick precisely for the same reasons you & I talked about. She’s a solid progressive who also can do well enough on constituent service to build a good relationship with voters statewide.
I REALLY hope Blago picks her! 😀
in IL-09 (Schakowsky’s CD).
It never ceases to amaze me how ideological blinders can prevent both conservatives and liberals from looking at facts and making rational conclusions.
Yes, Mark Kirk is a political moderate who is far more liberal than many Democrats, and thanks to Tyler Oakley for backing me up with statistical data. Anyone who thinks Kirk is a conservative just doesn’t have the ability or willingness to think about politics rationally.
Kirk is DESPISED by conservatives. Last week, four GOPers on Tom Roeser’s Sunday night radio show spent five minutes ripping the guy, calling him a RINO (Republican In Name Only) and wishing that he would be ousted from the House. Conservatives hate Kirk far more than they hate Dems.
If Kirk lived in many states (and parts of Illinois), the voters would boot him out of Congress for being too liberal. But, he lives in a liberal district, a district that also has one of the highest percentage of college and post-college graduates in the entire USA. The voters in his district are very smart.
On another matter, in response to another poster, if Michael Madigan and Rod Blagoyevich try to engineer any sort of political fix, they should be deported to a nation that disrespects democracy. I’m tired of living in a state where so-called liberals have contempt for democracy.
Shalom,
ZWrite
http://politicalticker.blogs.c…
JJ seems to be the one who wants it the most. He probably won’t get it because of the fear that he won’t hold onto the seat because of the animosity towards JJ Sr.
The new rumor is that Rahm wants Duckworth to be in the federal VA department, even as secretary, therefore that would leave her out as far as being the new Senator. I also have to go with those who are uncomfortable about the fact that neither Seals nor Duckworth has ever won an election. If Seals can’t win in a progressive district like the one he currently ran in, how can he win statewide?
There are so many people jockeying for Obama’s seat that Blagojevich is going to be innundated – this is probably the most popular he’ll ever be with anyone. I’m sure a lot of back-room bargaining is going on right now. Will it be a “place-filler” like Burris or Emil Jones or will it be someone who will actually run again in 2010?
For those worried Seals would end up fighting for the seat against Kirk, I think you have to stop looking at numbers and start looking at what happened in the district. The local press does anything and everything for Kirk. that would not necessarily happen statewide. Kirk controls a large portion of the pro-Israel vote in the northern suburbs, also not necessarily true statewide. He’s also gone on record as hating Chicagoans, calling them thugs and goons on tape. He’d have to get major love downstate to pull it off, and knowing him, I just don’t see it.