The Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche (11/6-7, likely voters):
Paul Carmouche (D): 45
John Fleming (R): 35
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Here it is — the first publicly-released poll of this race. Lots of undecideds here, but Carmouche begins the race with an edge, retaining a 53-16 favorable rating.
A strong field operation will be crucial in this race, as both sides expect that turnout will be poor. We can also expect a fierce air war here — Fleming is a wealthy physician and businessman, and surely he’ll be ponying up more of his own dough in the coming weeks. The NRCC also needs something to crow about, so they’ve reserved $330K in air time on Fleming’s behalf. No word yet on how heavy the DCCC plans to spend here, but they’ve already dropped $77,000 against Fleming over the weekend.
General election: 12/6.
The poll’s press release is available below the fold.
As if VA-05 and MD-01 weren’t enough, I’ll be thrilled to pick up this one next month. Sweet revenge for Cazayoux. Will this race be the cherry on top of it all or are there more to come? I can only hope.
BTW, anybody have an idea who’s going after Vitter? I’d love to take that seat as well. I got to tell you, I think LA is moving away from us on the Presidential and local levels but we seem to do okay for Congress.
You guys have an element on all of your pages that slows the load time down to molasses. It looks like the issue is with this:
http://networks.feedburner.com…
/OT
Don Cazayoux had the same numbers going into last Tuesday, and he lost by 8 points. The only solace I take is that this gentleman, Carmouche, isn’t running against an Independent stealing votes from him.
I’m optimistic but cautious in a wait and see attitude.
is it will be easier for Carmouche (if he wins the runoff) to survive redistricting since LA-04 is in the northwest corner of the state.
LA-02 (currently Jefferson), LA-03 (Melancon) and LA-06 are all bunched together in the New Orleans-Baton Rouge area. It would have been very difficult to draw 3 Dem districts in this region, especially since Louisiana is losing a seat in 2012.