Can we target FL-15 this time?

I wrote this as a comment a while back but decided to make a dairy to an idea that came to me.

    I’ve lived here my whole life and i’ll admit there are a lot of Republicans in the area but the trend is going our way and for the first time ever I saw more Democratic signs then Republican signs in my area in Brevard county. Granted I haven’t been around that long but the sheer sight of that was pretty inspiring considering how red we are considered.

I’m gonna do my best to perdict what this district looks like now after the presidential race.  

In 2004 the district voted 57-43 for Bush. In 2006 Bob Bowman a 9/11 conspiracy believer won 44% of the vote against incumbent Dave Weldon. In 2008 Dr. Stephen Blythe who I believed raised less then 50k still managed to get 42% of the vote against his Republican opponent.

Now there are 4 counties in Floridas 15th.

Brevard, Indian River, Osecola and Polk

Comparing the two presidential races: Remember FL-15 voted 57-43 for Bush in 04 the 08 data isn’t clear yet but the county data is.

Brevard voted: 55-44 for McCain (in 04: 58-42 Bush) (only part of the county is in the district)

Indian River voted 57-42 McCain (in 04 it voted 60-37 for Bush)

Osceola voted 60-40 for Obama (in 04 it voted 53-47 for Bush)

Polk County voted 53-47 for McCain (in 04 it voted 59-41 for Bush) (only sliver of county in the district).

Here are the county results for the 2008 House election:

Brevard: Posey 55% (R) Blythe 39% (D)

Indian River: Posey 60% (R)   Blythe (36%) (D)

Osceola: Blythe 54% (D) Posey  43% (R)

Polk: Blythe 50% (D) Posey 46% (5,125)

I think the strategy to win here is good turnout in Osceola and the sliver of Polk combined with keeping it close in Brevard and keeping the Republican under 60% in Indian River. I’m not sure how well Obama did in the parts of Polk and Brevard that are in the district but I imagine better then Blythe since he was so underfunded and drowned out. So I can’t imagine the district being any more then 55-45 Republican at this point I imagine it’s even less.

The idea I stumbled was about a candidate that I think may be able to give Posey a serious run for his seat. Former State Representitive Tony Sasso. Tony Sasso won a special election in Feburary to replace scandal plagued republican Bob Allen. Sasso had to run again in november against another republican named Steve Crisafulli who won the seat by a few thousands votes. The reason I think Tony Sasso can win is that the key to this district seems to be Brevard county and he has a strong base of support here in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral which could prove key. Add that to the Democratic leaning area of Melbourne and he might be able to cut away at Poseys hold on Brevard to pull it off.

Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts or ideas on the race or Tony Sassos possible candidacy?