Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters):
Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4%)
So far, both publicly-released runoff period polls (R2K being the other) have showed little movement since November 4th. Chambliss still retains a slight lead, but as Nate Silver says, likely voter models are tough to set for special-type elections, and it’s difficult to make assumptions about turnout. Incredibly, 88% of Georgian voters say they are “certain” to vote in this runoff, which is a bit hard to believe considering that voter turnout was over 20 points lower on November 4th. In this race, so much will come down to getting out the vote, making the outcome difficult to predict.
I’m told that another pollster is about to go into the field here tomorrow, so we should have some more poll results to pick apart in a few days.
This election is on my birthday, December 2nd.
Will we see any change in these numbers??!! I’m already getting heartburn over this. What should we do to change this & push Martin over the top?
We know you’re pissed about the blacks and all but 1964 was a long time ago, sweeties.
a Chambliss “macaca” moment…now would be a good time.
Turnout on election day was 4 million voters. Estimated turnout for the special election is 1.5 million. Get half of Jim Martin’s voters out to the polls and he wins. Turnout is unpredictable because we don’t know who will show up. Will (although I doubt) Obama supporters be motivated to show up and give Martin a boost?
Hopefully Obama’s ground team can organize in a way that gets the vote out. Utilize the colleges, churches, etc. The plan is there. Do we have the volunteer power to do it?
‘Each of the next two Mondays.
Me.
And I also voted for the Democrat for Public Service Commission and the more progressive (or at the very least less insanely right-wing) candidate for Court of Appeals (Sara Doyle).
The November 17th episode of the Daily Show? Hilarious segment about the Senate races in MN, AK, and GA. Especially the Georgia one, that was funny!
It appears AA turnout is down in early voting so far. I’m wondering what PPP will come up with.