Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 46
Jon Porter (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
Looks like Nevadans are feeling kind of lukewarm about Harry Reid these days. (“Lukewarm” and “Harry Reid” in the same sentence? Wow, I’ll bet that’s never happened before…) In a prospective 2010 matchup, he’s beating Jon Porter (who recently got bounced from his NV-03 seat by Dina Titus) by six points, although he’s well below the 50% comfort level.
The numbers below the fold look worse for Reid; his approval/disapproval rating is only 38/54 (luckily, Porter’s are little better at 40/39). When asked whether they’d choose to reelect Reid or consider replacing him, respondents say 32% reelect, 23% consider someone else, and 41% say replace him. Against a strong challenger with a statewide reputation, Reid could face some real trouble, leaving him possibly the only endangered Dem-held seat in 2010. However, between the badly depleted Republican bench in Nevada (Porter may truly be their best bet, as Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki may be looking at indictment rather than a run against Reid, and Rep. Dean Heller is likely to either stay in place or go for Governor) and Nevada’s rapid demographics-driven bluening, this race could just as easily turn into a non-issue.
and Porter won’t win. I doubt Porter is at 40% statewide. And I doubt he has 80% name recognition. To me, R2K numbers are just as good as made up numbers.
Reid has always been a “lukewarm” candidate for Nevada mainly because he typifies the typical Dem establishment pol who we know but don’t really care for. I, personally, think he is a very weak Dem national leader but a strong political deal maker (i.e. he’s stronger as a behind the scenes guy rather than a face of the party). Nevada is trending blue, but Obama’s 12 point margin of vicotry (largest since Bush ’88) in the stae was becuase of the state’s dismal economy, newer residents and hipsanic voters and an awful GOP bench. However, Porter was a wave casualty not a Bill Sali or Marilyn Musgrave we-hate-this person-vote, so I think he still has some potential. Afterall, Reid previously lost (by less than 1k votes)to Reagan acolyte former Sen. Paul Laxalt in the 1970s before winning in 86. Reid may not benefit from ground efforts of Obama ’08 and if the economy isn’t in too great a shape by mid-2010, Reid may be in more trouble. We’ll see how this goes but the GOP better get the best nominee if it wants to have a chance at all because, you can’t beat somebody with nobody.
Not from the right.
He last won re-election with 61% of the vote in what was a Republican leaning year.
There’s something of a tradition here. One can go back over 50 years, and you will find Majority leaders in trouble.
While Democrats have made substantial gains in Nevada, the national party is relatively unpopular, and Reid has had low approval ratings for a while. This dip may be bailout-related, but I do think relinquising his majority leader status might be a good idea.
If he engineers passage of many of the legislation Obama has promised he will probably increase in popularity greatly. If he fails and/or gives in to Senate republicans too much he’ll get votes out, as he will deserve should that happen.
Reid better not be afraid of the right he better be afraid of an angry left if he doesn’t get enough done.