Governor: Complete 2009/2010 Outlook

After reading a lot of diaries on the upcoming elections in 2010, as well as seeing early predictions from Charlie Cook, I decided to compile tables of all the races that will occur in 2010. For the governors, I will also include the 2009 races in New Jersey and Virginia. Tomorrow I will have the complete outlook for the Senators up in 2010, and Sunday I will have a complete table of House races worth watching. I will also update regularly any changes in these races as 2009 and 2010 go on.

NOTE: Just because a candidate is listed in the table does not necessarily mean that I think they will win. I am only listing the candidates that have received buzz about running.

And about the candidates such as Richardson and Napolitano, who will serve in the Obama administration, they are staying on this list until they are sworn in to their positions. Then their counterparts (Diane Denish and Jan Brewer respectively) will take their places.

The table is over the flip.

State Incumbent Term-Limited Potential to Flip Potential Challengers
Alabama
Bob Riley
Yes
Medium
Artur Davis (AL-07)
Jim Folsom, Jr. (Lt. Gov.)
Ron Sparks (Ag. Com.)
Mike Rogers (AL-03)
Troy King (Att. Gen.)
Alaska
Sarah Palin
No
Low
Ethan Berkowtiz (St. Sen.)
Eric Croft (St. Rep.)
Diane Benson (2006 AK-AL nominee)
Arizona
Janet Napolitano
Yes
Medium
Terry Goddard (Att. Gen.)
Jan Brewer (Sec. of State)
Dean Martin (State Treasurer)
Jeff Flake (AZ-06)
Arkansas
Mike Beebe
No
Low
California
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Yes
High
Dianne Feinstein (U.S. Senator)
John Garamendi (Lt. Gov.)
Jerry Brown (Att. Gen.)
Bill Lockyer (State Treasurer)
Debra Bowen (Sec. of State)
Jack O’Connell (Ed. Sup.)
Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
Antonio Villaraigosa (L.A. Mayor)
Gavin Newsom (S.F. Mayor)
Tom McClintock (State Sen.)
Darrell Issa (CA-49)
Steve Poizner (Ins. Comm.)
Meg Whitman (former eBay CEO)
Carly Fiorina (former HP CEO)
Colorado
Bill Ritter
No
Low
Connecticut
Jodi Rell
No
Low
Richard Blumenthal (Att. Gen.)
Florida
Charlie Crist
No
Low
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-20)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Bill McCollum (Att. Gen.)
Georgia
Sonny Perdue
Yes
Medium
Thurbert Baker (Att. Gen.)
DuBose Porter (House Min. Leader)
David Poythress
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
John Oxendine (Ins. Comm.)
Casey Cagle (Lt. Gov.)
Karen Handel (Sec. of State)
Hawaii
Linda Lingle
Yes
High
Neil Abercrombie (HI-01)
Mazie Hirono (HI-02)
Mufi Hannemann (Honolulu Mayor)
Colleen Hanabusa (St. Sen. Pres.)
Ed Case (former HI-02 rep.)
James Aiona (Lt. Gov.)
Idaho
Butch Otter
No
Low
Illinois
Rod Blagojevich
No
Medium-Low
Bill Brady (State Sen.)
Lisa Madigan (Att. Gen.)
Dan Hynes (Comptroller)
Tom Cross (State Rep.)
Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Iowa
Chet Culver
No
Low
Kansas
Kathleen Sebelius
Yes
Medium-High
Mark Parkinson (Lt. Gov)
Sam Brownback (U.S. Senator)
Jerry Moran (KS-01)
Todd Tiahrt (KS-04)
Maine
John Baldacci
Yes
Medium-Low
Tom Allen (ME-01)
Maryland
Martin O’Malley
No
Low
Massachusetts
Deval Patrick
No
Low
Michigan
Jennifer Granholm
Yes
Medium
John Cherry (Lt. Gov.)
Bart Stupak (MI-01)
Mike Cox (Att. Gen.)
Terri Land (Sec. of State)
Candice Miller (MI-10)
Mike Rogers (MI-08)
Minnesota
Tim Pawlenty
No
Medium
Mike Hatch (former Att. Gen.)
R.T. Rybak (Minn. Mayor)
Nebraska
Dave Heineman
No
Low
Nevada
Jim Gibbons
No
High
Barbara Buckley (Assembly Speaker)
Oscar Goodman (Vegas Mayor)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (Att. Gen.)
Rory Reid (Clark Co. Comm’r.)
Dean Heller (NV-02)
New Hampshire
John Lynch
No
Low
New Jersey
Jon Corzine
No
Medium
Chris Christie (U.S. Attorney)
Steve Lonegan (former Bogota mayor)
Brian Levine (Franklin Township mayor)
Rick Merkt (St. Asm.)
New Mexico
Bill Richardson
Yes
Low
Diane Denish (Lt. Gov.)
New York
David Paterson
No
Low
Andrew Cuomo (Att. Gen.)
Tom Suozzi (Nassau Co. Exec.)
John Faso (St. Asm. Min. Leader)
Rudy Giuliani (former NYC Mayor)
Peter King (NY-03)
Ohio
Ted Strickland
No
Low
Mike DeWine (Former U.S. Senator)
Rob Portman (Former OMB Director/Rep.)
Jim Petro (Former Att. Gen.)
Betty Montgomery (Former Att. Gen.)
John Kasich (Former Rep.)
Oklahoma
Brad Henry
Yes
High
Drew Edmonson (Att. Gen.)
Jari Askins (Lt. Gov.)
Tom Cole (OK-04)
Mary Fallin (OK-05)
Oregon
Ted Kulongoski
Yes
Medium-Low
Brad Avakian (Lab. Comm.)
Earl Blumenauer (OR-03)
Bill Bradbury (Sec. of State)
Peter DeFazio (OR-04)
Randall Edwards (Treasurer)
Ben Westlund (St. Sen.)
Greg Walden (OR-02)
Pennsylvania
Ed Rendell
Yes
Medium
Michael Nutter (Philly Mayor)
John Shapiro (State Rep.)
Jack Wagner (Aud. Gen.)
Tom Corbett (Att. Gen.)
Melissa Hart (former PA-04 rep.)
Pat Toomey (2004 Sen. candidate)
Rhode Island
Don Carcieri
Yes
High
David Cicilline (Prov. Mayor)
Frank Caprio (State Treasurer)
Stephen Laffey (Cranston Mayor)
South Carolina
Mark Sanford
Yes
Medium-Low
Paul Agnew (St. Rep.)
Joe Erwin (former State party chair)
Todd Rutherford (St. Rep.)
Henry McMaster (Att. Gen.)
André Bauer (Lt. Gov.)
J. Gresham Barrett (SC-03)
South Dakota
Mike Rounds
Yes
Low
Scott Heidepriem (St. Sen.)
Mike Huether
Dennis Daugaard (Lt. Gov.)
Gary Hanson (ex-Sioux Falls Mayor)
Tennessee
Phil Bredesen
Yes
Medium
Lincoln Davis (TN-04)
Matt Kisber (TN Econ. Dev. comm.)
Kim McMillan (former State Rep.)
Harold Ford (former TN-09 Rep.)
Marsha Blackburn (TN-07)
Bill Gibbons (Nashville D.A.)
Beth Harwell (St. Rep.)
Bill Haslam (Knoxville Mayor)
Ron Ramsey (St. Sen.)
Texas
Rick Perry
No
Medium
Bill White (Houston mayor)
Kirk Watson (State Sen.)
Kinky Friedman (’06 Ind. candidate)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (U.S. Senator)
David Dewhurst (Lt. Gov.)
Vermont
Jim Douglas
No
Low
Virginia
Tim Kaine
Yes
Medium-High
Bob McDonnell (Att. Gen.)
Terry McAuliffe (former DNC chair)
Creigh Deeds (State Sen.)
Brian Moran (State Del.)
Wisconsin
Jim Doyle
Yes
Medium
Barbara Lawton (Lt. Gov.)
Tommy Thompson (former Gov.)
Scott Walker (Milwaukee Co. Exec.)
Wyoming
Dave Freudenthal
Yes
High

18 thoughts on “Governor: Complete 2009/2010 Outlook”

  3. Gordon Smith has said he isn’t interested in running for Gov but he’s probably the only Republican who could win statewide.

    Jodi Rell, Charlie Christ, and Juneau’s own Marge Gunderson will all cruise to re-election unfortunately.

    As for Maine, maybe Susan will pull a KBH and run for Governor. We could have a Collins-Allen Death Match: Round Deux on our hands!

  4. – Former Senator Mike DeWine

    – Former OMB Director/ Rep. Rob Portman

    – Former AG Jim Petro

    – Former AG Betty Montgomery

    – Former Rep. John Kasich

    Others that won’t run, but might be credible..

    Outgoing Speaker State Sen.-Elect Jon Husted (running against Jennifer Brunner for SOS)

    State Auditor Mary Taylor( probably seeking reelection)

  5. Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI-01) and Rep. Mazie Hirono (HI-02) may run, but more likely is Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa.

    If Ed Case runs (which I seriously doubt) he’d get crushed.  The establishment AND the grassroots hate him.

  6. I’d add Brownback to the list of possibilities.  He’s already announced he’s leaving his senate seat, so there’s probably a good chnace he runs for Governor.

  8. In order of liklihood of flipping I’d rank the.  Only including those that appear to have any real chance of flipping.  

    Rep Seats:

    1. RI – Open

    2. HI – Open

    3. CA – Open

    4. NV – Gibbons(?)

    5. MN – Pawlenty

    6. GA – Open

    7. AL – Open

    8. SC – Open

    9. TX – Perry

    10. FL – Crist

    11. SD – Open

    12. VT – Douglas

    Dem Seats:

    1. WY – Open

    2. OK – Open

    3. KS – Open

    4. TN – Open

    5. VA – Open

    6. MI – Open

    7. AZ – Open

    8. PA – Open

    9. WI – Doyle

    10. NJ – Corzine

    11. ME – Open

    12. OH – Strickland

    13. OR – Open

    14. NM – Open

    15. IL – Blagojevich(?)

    16. CO – Ritter

    17. NY – Paterson

  9. Its not even funny.  He’s only not been nailed with them because he’s in a deep red district.  Foremost among them is the fact that he was head on the NRCC audit committee a few years back when they had a lot of money stolen from them.

  11. There’s an 8 year cycle, after all. . .

    It’ll probably be Tom Corbett. Too bad we couldn’t put a better candidate up against him this year–we won all other statewide contests.

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