After very nearly shocking the nation with his surprisingly strong result against GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert, Democrat Bill Hedrick has finally conceded defeat. From the Riverside Press-Enterprise:
More than three weeks after Election Day, the votes have finally been tallied in the 44th Congressional District, and Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick acknowledged defeat.
“We have shown quite clearly that we most certainly can win this seat two years from now,” Hedrick said in a letter sent late Thursday to supporters. “While we are disappointed that we did not win this election, we are not discouraged.”
The longtime Corona-Norco school board member vowed to run again in two years to unseat incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert.
This is a rematch that I can get behind. On paper, Hedrick is a fine candidate — he’s an elected school board president with a son serving in Iraq. I wouldn’t mind seeing what he’d be able to do with the enthusiastic backing of national Democrats, as well as a healthy campaign budget (he raised just $155K for his race). In a district like this one, the Dem bench is probably pretty bare, so giving Hedrick a second crack seems like a pretty good idea to me.
Update: In the comments, SSPer Steven Axelrod, himself a CA-44 resident, weighs in. It’s worth a read.
none of us knew anything about Hedrick. and really still don’t. James you can’t even say he was on your top 50 possible Democratic wins can you?
I think that this is one of those that we could have won flying under the radar. I’m not so sure if we put money into. That being said, I think some early polling would determine how likely an upset is here
Now that we know Calvert is vulnerable, it’s time for California Dems to find a real candidate.
It’s sad that $155K isn’t considered enough to be competitive in a House race these days.
I live in this district. It was designed as a Republican stronghold. It stretches from Riverside County through Orange County. There is little geographical or cultural coherence to the district. Apart from the University of California, Riverside, some African American neighborhoods, and crucially an expanding Latino population, it’s composed of the kind of suburban and exurban sprawl that used to be gold for Republicans.
Nevertheless, Ken Calvert is widely unpopular here. Even Republicans are lukewarm about him. He’s a sleazebag, who has enriched himself by using his influence to effect lucrative real estate deals. He won the seat as a moderate, fending off the more conservative Sarkis Khoury in two primaries. But then he held the seat as a Bush clone. His mailers thunder against terrorists and immigrants, but he’s rarely seen in the district. Even against no viable opposition, he has seen his victory margin diminish from election to election. This time, running against a live and sentient opponent, he almost lost.
Hedrick is a good guy–smart and progressive. He signed on to the Responsible Plan for getting out of Iraq. His views on social and economic issues are liberal, indeed surprisingly liberal for this district. He is pro-choice, pro-union, and pro-environment. He raised a lot of money all by himself and with the aid of devoted supporters, holding house party after house party all over the spread-out district. He ran the most visible Democratic campaign I’ve ever seen against Calvert.
There is no other prominent Democrat in the district–at least none that I’m aware of. My Assemblyman and state Senator are both Republicans, and I believe that is true elsewhere in the district. The mayor of Riverside, Ron Loveridge, is a Democrat but a business-friendly centrist. My supervisor, Bob Buster, is also a Democrat, and I think a good one, but he seems content with his present office.
With help from the Netroots and the DCCC, Hedrick can win next time. His presence in the House would be a huge improvement over the present incumbent. He merits attention from folks on this site–and, I believe, ultimately our support.
He was not completely overlooked by the whole wide world. Democracy for America, to their great credit, had Hedrick on their endorsement list.
conceding before everything was done… sigh
If you look at the numbers (granted, they’re not finalized yet in California, but we still have a good idea), it looks more like Republican turnout (at least in California) was down because they knew they were going to get their butts kicked, and that’s the reason why Obama did so well in California, and not because Democratic turnout was so great.
In 2004, Bush got 322,473 votes in Riverside County, while Kerry got 228,806 votes there. Now in 2008, the non-finalized numbers have McCain at 197,517 votes, and Obama at 210,905 votes. Unless the early & absentee votes there net Obama an additional 18,000 votes, Obama will have underperformed Kerry in this county. (Granted, CA-44 is only a tiny part of Riverside County, but I don’t have the district numbers for the presidential race, and I still think these numbers are instructive.) Even if there’s another 20,000 votes for Obama there, that would still only mean he outperformed Kerry by a measley 1%.
Now, this was in a year where all we heard was talk about massive Democratic turnout. It DIDN’T HAPPEN in large parts of California. It was Republicans staying home, NOT Democrats turning out in unheard-of numbers. Same thing when you look at the numbers in Butte County (part of which is in CA-04, I believe). I give this warning because Obama won’t be at the top of the ticket in 2010. And if there’s anywhere near “normal” Republican turnout that year, then a lot of these races where we think we have a good shot will end up being double-digit losses for us.
We have to understand what got us here. I think the Hedrick-Calvert race was indicative of Republicans simply staying home in Riverside. If they show up with their normal proportion in a midterm election, there’s no way Democratic turnout will be able to match it, I believe. Look at the 2004 numbers. Calvert got 138,768 votes against a virtually unknown Democrat named Vandenberg, who got 78,796 votes. Then in 2006, in a rematch, turnout was obviously way down for both parties, and Calvert easily won again, 89,555 votes to 55,275 votes. Now in 2008, the (un-finalized) numbers have Calvert at 97,273 votes, and Hedrick at 89,149 votes. That’s a 13% increase in the Dem share of the vote compared to 2004, but a 30% drop in Calvert’s numbers. But I think a lot of that has to do with McCain keeping Republicans at home in Riverside, rather than what Hedrick did. (And with almost no money, I really don’t think you can argue that those numbers were a result of what Hedrick did.) So keep this in mind before everyone starts crowing about how CA-44 is within our reach.
CA-44 is a very good example of poor leadership at the state level. The CA-Dems leadership generally is a lot more concerned about protecting their own incumbency to see what is really going on. And on top of that, they are too NorCA focused from their fortress in Sacramento. Sure, CA-04 was a good fight but there are a number of low hanging fruit in SoCal ready for the plucking… CA-42 is another good example – Gary Miller is one of the most corrupt member of Congress in a district that is on the verge of becoming minority-majority and yet, CA-Dems have not invested any money or energy into registering new Latino and Asian voters. They just write off CA-42 every 2 years because it was designed to be a safe GOP seat… completely ignoring the fact that demographics have changed drastically since 2000.
Of course the flip side of that argument may be that by 2012, the districts will be redrawn and CA-44 (and CA-42) may end up being “safe” Dem seats… who knows
Little late getting to this thread, but I wanted to add my two cents about Bill Hedrick.
I live in the 44th and I can say without a doubt the Bill can and will win come 2010. The final numbers coming out of SOS put Bill at 48.8%! The Dem before that got 37% in 2006. I was active in Bill’s campaign and I can tell you that he is the only person who will have a chance against Calvert.
Bill’s success is not some freak accident of Obama support or dumb luck. It’s hard work! I’ve lived in the 44th the full 16 years it’s existed, and Bill is the first candidate FOR ANY OFFICE that’s ever knocked on my door, called me, or asked me for a donation and to volunteer. And he knocked on Republican doors too! Imagine their surprise! It paid off – 40-50% of Bill’s donors and endorsers are Republicans. Bill has often been the only elected Democrat in Corona-Norco, which is 40% of the CD, and he has built solid relationships with local Republicans who are tired of Calvert and his corrupt antics. Bill has won the respect of OC Democrats and Republicans, including Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez who held a fundraiser for him in October.
If you crunch the numbers, Bill won several precincts in San Clemente (where registration says he shouldn’t have won any!), two pcts in San Juan, and he managed to double what the last Democrat got in OC. Bill beat Dem registration all over the CD. In places like Mira Loma and Eastvale, where the registration is 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 Republican, Bill won every precinct.
It’s true the Riverside mayor is a Democrat, but not a very good one as he continues to endorse Calvert election after election – he’s also 70 years old! Supervisor Bob Buster was once a Dem, but he is now an ‘independent.’ I’d estimate at least 80% of elected officials in the 44th CD are Republicans, and many of them are very conservative.
Bill is the guy to run in 2010. Over 1000 donors, over 1000 volunteers, over 100 house parties held in Riv and OC…and one of the best showings of any Democrat anywhere put Bill on the top of the list. It’s the most amazing grassroots campaign anyone around here has ever seen!
You’ll be hard pressed to find another Democrat who’s going to find support to run against Bill after what he’s done for Democrats in this district. And what he continues to do – tonight he was the guest speaker at a peace vigil in downtown Riverside. Bill’s not just a good guy, he’s our guy.
The best thing the Democratic party could do for the 44th is to throw their support behind Bill right away. 10,000 newly registered Dems over 2009 and the 44th will be solidly blue. A little money to reach out to more people and it’s his. Bill lost by 6100 votes. He’s got two years to get them. Do yourself a favor and take a close look at Bill, who he is, and the numbers he pulled off with no help whatsoever from the party. This will be THE race in 2010.