I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder’s blog, as he’s very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.
But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but……
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I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder’s blog, as he’s very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.
But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but……
Ambinder posted a lengthy scribe today about the “meaning” of Chambliss’ victory over Jim Martin in the 2008 GA-Sen runoff.
Key text, at the very very very end:
“But… more Republican retirements are expected, including at least two in blue states (Chuck Grassley of Iowa and George Voinovich of Ohio.)”
WOAH! Don’t you dare try to pass that off as an aside, Marc! 🙂
Seriously, I don’t think Ambinder realizes this is not any kind of “common knowledge” or “open secret” in the world of political junkies, and I speak as one in Greater D.C. even though I’m far from an “insider.”
If a bunch of insiders “expect” Voinovich and Grassley to hang it up, that’s news to me and to almost every blog I read. In Grassley’s case, yes, the 77-year old 5-term Senator is the speculation of retirement, but naked speculation is all I’ve read or heard. And I’d read or heard nothing about Voinovich retiring.
If these seats are open, then my home state of Iowa is a “should” win for us, with Dems having the much deeper bench these days, but Ohio could be much more competitive. Iowa is a state where I’d love to see Vilsack vs. Latham, in which case we very easily could pick up both the Senate seat and IA-04. Ohio is just a more ideologically conservative state than Iowa, and one that I think still has a very slight red tilt. Ultimately recruitment in Ohio is much more wide open on both sides.
But make no mistake, in either state a retirement only helps us pick up the Senate seat.
would be good choices for both states.
Would be considered top pickup opportunities and I know Big John is begging both of these guys not to retire.
Outside of Latham, I don’t know if the GOP has a viable candidate. And I don’t know if a guy like Latham would give up a, relatively, safe seat and a spot on the Appropriations Committee for a race in which he’d be the underdog.
Ohio could be a marquee race. I think both sides have a decent bench that could go statewide, the GOP has Rep. Mike Turner, and former Rep. Rob Portman. While the Dems have Tim Ryan, LG Lee Fisher and SOS Jennifer Brunner.
A Ryan-Portman race a big time race.
I think this is all the more reason to start trying to get Vilsack and Fisher (whom I prefer over Ryan) into the race.
One of the biggest ways to get incumbents to retire is to get big names to challenge them so they know they’ll have a hard time winning re-election.
Already having 58 seats means the Repubs are almost still on defense if they have to worry about three open seats in states won by Obama.
Specter will be 80 in 2010 and promises to face both a tough, nasty primary and a tough general election. Get that video of Queen up again. Another one bites the dust.
Republican opposition to a bailout for the Big Three auto makers is putting people like Voinovich and Kit Bond on the short track to heading home. And if they have an actual fillibuster, the words can be recycled again and again against them.
Voinovich’s possible retirement has been widely discussed. If we had reached the magic number (60) I would have been willing to out money on it. At 59? Hmmn… tough call. It would take more than a K Street Gucci loafer job to attract George
I have to admit, there are times when I hear GV say things that certainly sound as if he plans to retire. To win in 2010, he would have to campaign really, really hard. It would be a very tough race. Given Sherrod Brown’s success, Geroge has gotta know that he’s in for the fight of his life if he runs again. I know people around here who say there is NO WAY he runs again.
And if it’s an open seat, our chances are excellent.
As I’ve said before, Fisher probably has a lock on the nomination, but Ryan would be stronger in the general election. When Fisher ran for governor, my impression was that he ran a lame-o campaign. But he’s a classic liberal and has the support of Strickland and the state Party. Ryan would obviously hope to follow Sherrod Brown’s emphasis on economic populism. However, I haven’t seen any polling on how he does statewide. But in his District, he gets a LOT of cross ticket support.(Well, duh… 78% this time.) Seriously, he appeals to Catholics and “social moderates” who are kitchen table Democrats.
People on national blogs keep throwing around Judge Brunner’s name but I haven’t heard word one in that regard from anyone from Ohio. We all want her to stay at SoS until after redistricting, reapportionment and reform of our elections.
After that? Heck, I’d support her for President!
In Iowa a retirement is obviously a great thing. Grassley is unbeatable, but an open seat would lean our way.
Ohio on the other hand is morel ike Florida’s situation. I’d much rather Voinovich and his shopping low 40’s approval ratings run again.