Get ready for a Texas-sized primary battle: it’s been long threatened, but now Kay Bailey Hutchison has launched a committee to explore a run for governor in 2010. (And, of course, by the time you’re officially “exploring” (i.e. starting to raise funds), you’re actually pretty damn well committed to seeing it through.) As an added edge for Hutchison, as a federal official she’s still able to raise money during the Texas legislative session, while Perry (a state official) cannot.
This creates the prospect for more interesting internecine warfare between Republicans (with Perry expected to line up social conservative support and Hutchison carrying the flag for the Chamber of Commerce types and what otherwise passes for moderates in Texas). But even more significantly, if KBH becomes governor, that leaves an open senate seat. (Unless Texas law has changed recently, the seat would be subject to short-term appointment followed by a special election… that’s how KBH became senator in the first place, beating the hapless Bob Krueger in a 1993 special election, who had been appointed by Ann Richards to replace Lloyd Bentsen, who retired to become Clinton’s Treasury Secretary.)
Houston mayor Bill White, the Dems’ best hope in Texas, is probably also watching carefully, hoping to jump into whatever race Hutchison(almost undisputedly Texas’s most popular politican) doesn’t jump into. If KBH becomes governor, White may actually have a shot in a special election for an open Senate seat against a generic R.
Two of the likely candidates:
1) State Sen. Florence Shapiro already has a majority of the Republican State Senators supporting her run for U.S. Senate, and has raised about $400k. She’s Chair of the Senate’s Education committee; not exactly the most popular issue in Texas, and she doesn’t have huge name ID.
2) Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst. He wants to move somewhere; if it can’t be Governor, I’d imagine it would be for U.S. Senate. But he may not run against one of his own State Senators; instead, he could choose to run for a 3rd term for the Lt. Gov. spot.
As always, lots of coverage over at Burnt Orange Report.