59 thoughts on “LA-04: Predictions Thread”

  1. DCCC has spent 1.15 million on this race and the NRCC has spent 900K here.  Democrats have proven more effective at winning competitive special elections.  Paul Carmouche is probably one of the best candidates we could have recruited for this district… Everything is leaning in our direction except the district (PVI R+7).  If we win, it’s going to be a squeeker, low black turnout has the potential for disaster.  

    My prediction:

    (D) Carmouche 50.4%

    (R) Fleming 49.6%

  3. Polls close late there today. I am going to say the Republican wins by at least 6%. Democrats got Obama in the White House and they’ve become apathetic. The reason we did so well in the special elections earlier this year is all us Democrats were just itchin’ to go vote while Republicans were a little on the down and out. I’m not saying that the Republican brand has been restored,I just think that enough may be willing to come home, and Democrats might just be willing to stay home.

    I hope that I am wrong of course. It would be nice to get that district blue.

  4. is that the Democrat always wins the runoff. Of course, this isn’t a proper runoff, and Louisiana isn’t exactly a Democratic stronghold anymore.

    I think this one’s going to be close.

  8. but in la-04 i’m guessing common sense loses in a landslide yet again.  i don’t care for the repubs, but would be willing to vote for 1 if it got rid of a crook.

  10. Carmouche 51-49.

    I do worry that the black vote will not turn out without Obama at the top of the ticket.

  11. by about two points.  He is well known in the population center of this district(Caddo county) and the Republican is a nobody.  If we do lose this, then we should probably start worrying.  

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