Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)
Robin Carnahan (D): 43
Christopher Bond (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
The Great Orange Satan has started polling potential matchups for 2010, and as suspected, one potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent is Kit Bond in Missouri. Matched against possible candidate Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (member of Missouri’s preeminent political family), 22-year incumbent Bond leads by only 4 points.
Bond’s favorables are just under the 50% mark at 49/43, while the less-known Carnahan clocks in at 48/26 with 26% having no opinion, giving her a lot of room for growth. Interestingly, the only region of the state where Carnahan currently leads is the city of St. Louis; if (like Claire McCaskill in 2006) she can maintain usual Democratic margins in the urban parts of the state while holding down losses in the state’s big red middle, she can eke out the victory.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)
Ken Salazar (D-inc): 49
John Elway (R): 38
(MoE: ±4%)
Ken Salazar (D-inc): 51
Tom Tancredo (R): 37
Research 2000 also released the first set of polls for the 2010 senate race in Colorado (diaried yesterday by safi), which at least has the potential of being the Democrats’ top vulnerability. However, Ken Salazar is looking pretty safe against two top GOP contenders. One of those contenders is polarizing bigot Tom Tancredo, whom you wouldn’t expect to get much traction, but the other one is former Broncos QB (and car dealer) John Elway, a popular if not legendary figure in Colorado. But apparently he’s lacking in the political skills department, if he’s barely running ahead of the loathsome Tancredo (and he certainly can’t blame lack of name recognition).
Former GOP Gov. Bill Owens is sometimes mentioned as a candidate, although he hasn’t taken any steps in that direction. He ended his term fairly popular and would probably fare better than either of these clowns, so it would be interesting to see a head-to-head with him included.
She was just re-elected this year, so she doesn’t even have to leave her current post. And she’s probably the only Democrat that could make this a race.
…but there was a head to head of Bill Owens versus Salazar done this summer where Salazar was ahead 44 to 41. Anemic though very early numbers far away from election day.
Great QB, putz as a human being. I sincerely, truly HOPE that he’s the best the GOP can come up with.
Classic Newt type GOPer. Dumped his long suffering wife (and mom of his kids) for a freakin’ cheerleader, for cryin’ out loud. But the GOP Colorado bench is so weak that when McSame had his biggest rally in Colorado, it was Elway and his new trophy wife (and another former Bronco) on the podium.(Gee, that worked out well.. not soo well.)
Elway will UTTERLY turn off the evangelical GOP base in Colorado –which means he is “toast, BURNT TOAST.” If he runs, that roaring sound you’ll hear is a million Colorado soccer moms deserting the GOP. If you’re a Republican in Colorado, you MUST carry the “family values” voters.
Ironically, his brand of brainless Chamber of Commerce corporatism might fly in other states, but outside of Denver, he’s got nothing. I mean, what do people think of car dealers right about now?
Yes, he has the ability to dump a TON of money into this race, between his personal fortune and the corporate money he would attract. And yet, I doubt if he could get above 40% against Salazar.
The day that Elways enters the race, would be his best. After that, it’s all downhill, because he’s 100% name recognition, zero experience. And once everybody starts digging into his business dealings and his personal life, it’s over.
When I lived in Colorado, I was a volunteer for Gary Hart and Patricia Schroeder. To me, it seems like Colorado voters don’t form a “bell shaped curve.” My recollection is that they tend to be either flaming right wing gun nuts or pretty liberal, (except, for the sprawling ‘burbs surrounding Denver, as noted above.) Remember where Fuckus on the Family and a LOT of other tin foil hat evangelical groups are based? “Promise Creepers”? Ted Haggard?
Dump Mommy and as a GOPer out there — you’re finished.
Full disclaimer: I have always LOVED the Broncos, before during and since my time out there.