Al Franken has taken the lead late in the process. The AP has reported it: http://www.google.com/hostedne… . The remaining challenges are mostly Franken’s so his lead is likely to grow from the 250 votes it is know, (according to dailykos.com), and even from the 2 votes it is according to the AP. There will probably be another recount, some more scrutiny about the rejected absentee ballots that Coleman tried to block and which will probably be reviewed. But, it at the end of it Franken holds a 100 + vote lead he should be seated, regardless of what Larry Sabato says about NH-Sen in 1974. After that much due process that election would be certified and scrutinized, proved beyond a doubt, and Democracy does not become invalid if the margin of victory is small.
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Political open thread.
jw
This would be a huge embarassment to the GOP if an experienced pol lost to a comedian. And if Coleman somehow still pulled out a narrow win, it would be embarassing for an experienced pol to have that narrow a win against a political neophyte.
But I don’t understand why people think there will be another recount. Can Coleman pay for another one, like Christina Gregoire did? I thought that that was a Washington quirk. Is there any basis in state law for another recount?
The margin will definitely tighten. Franken has more withdrawn challenges than Coleman, so Coleman is likely to pick up a couple hundred votes from that. Then Franken should be ahead by about 50-100 votes (counting the duplicate ballots , which are overseas ballots that are supposed to be transferred to a normal ballot by an election judge). Coleman has challenged these votes, saying they have been counted twice but the canvassing board ruled to count these since there is no way to determine that and they said the courts are a better venue for the challenge.
Coleman will take the duplicate ballot issue to court. The other issue is the wrongly rejected absentees. The Minnesota Supreme Court said all parties must get together and come to an agreement on how to count the ballots (up to 1600). Those could go either way, although many have previously thought they would favor Franken since there are a large number of them in Duluth (Franken stronghold).
So the bottom line is we need to wait on a court ruling for the duplicate ballots. If Franken wins that, the election is likely over and he’ll win by about 50-100 votes.
Hopefully he pulls a Dayton and serves one term before retiring. I see little chance of him having approvals above the mid to high 40’s during his tenure in the Senate.