My Year End Observations/Predictions

In this last diary for this year, I thought I’d share with everyone my thoughts on political events this past year that I think I should get out there before year’s end. And I’ll include a few predictions of what I believe is in store for 2009:

1.) Eliot Spitzer

If you told me at the beginning of 2008 that Eliot Spitzer, the “my way or the highway” Governor of New York who was a rising star in the Democratic Party (and possible Presidential contender), was going to go down in flames because of a sex scandal, I would have thought you’d gone insane. I mean, who would throw away such a promising career for a few hours of sexual pleasure with fresh young ass?

Let’s not even look at Spitzer through the lens of being a politician, but just as a man. Let’s look at his family. Silda Wall Spitzer graduated from law school the same time as her husband and is an accomplished woman in her own right, plus in my opinion she’s an extremely attractive woman in her age (and a woman with brains as well as beauty is as hot as it can get in my opinion) You can’t convince me that a man of Spitzer’s intellect, who managed to bag a woman like that, could not find some way to rekindle his romance after how many years of marriage? Plus, the guy’s got three beautiful daughters who must be the pride and joy of any father. For anyone to throw something that good away seems unbelievable, and yet it happened. I know, this may sound completely unrelated to anything political, but I just thought I should get it out there.

2.) John Edwards

I used to think Edwards in the category of almost being a complete saint. He demonstrated such passion for the plight of America’s disadvantaged that I think if he actually became President, the poor would indeed be better off almost 100%. I imagined him as Obama’s Attorney General constantly. Unfortunately, like a great number of them, another sex scandal effectively banished Edwards’ voice to the sidelines during this election cycle. Hopefully, in two years people would have forgiven him and Edwards can return to the public square once again.

3.) China has risen….and it looks good/bad

Seems like an indecisive statement? That’s because it is. If anyone out there still thinks that China is a backwater country, you must have been under a rock during the Summer Olympics. I’ve been to China a few times, and I honestly have to say they are decades ahead of us Western countries. If the Obama administration needs to do anything, it needs to reach out to China, not go all protectionist as Lou Dobbs like to put it night after night on his show. China may indeed surpass the United States as the superpower of the 21st century (that’s the bad news). The good news? China also needs a transition of its own economically; it’s 30 modernization plan has run its course. It needs to do economics differently, and that’s where the West with its expertise can come in.

4.) The Race Card (Location: Illinois Senate Class 3 seat)

Rod Blagojevich’s appointment of former state AG Roland Burris was bad enough, but having Bobby Rush come out and vehemently argue that the Senate needs at least one black dude in it shocked me. Let me put it this way: is it really that crucial to have a black man in the Senate? Is a delay in the historic significance of having one damaging to the African American community, when they now have a black President? Looks like Rush may need to get his priorities straight.

And finally….

5.) Swing State Project

I truly like to thank those who started this weblog back who knows when; it has certainly given us who are interested in politics at a different level. And of course, it offers opinions rarely heard in the national media.

However, my concern for the overt partisanship may be misguided. After all, this site supports Democrats, so its natural to target Republicans, or bad Democrats. But I don’t think we should demonize all Republicans just because they have a ‘R’ next to their name. It’s because of sites like this, and opposite sites from the GOP, that throw good people like Lincoln Chafee under the bus. Or tell people not to vote for Greg Davis (who lost to Travis Childer in MS-01) because he looked like Nathan Lane? That’s just childish.

I don’t expect to change everybody’s mind, in fact I expect some to probably tell me to go to hell. But if I make one New Year’s Resolution for 2009, it would be to take a long look at unknown Republicans before launching my criticism, even if they get involved in a Blagojevich style scandal. After all, everyone’s innocent until proven guilty. To pass judgement on one based on other’s opinions is unwise.

So, Happy New Year, everybody. See you in 2009.

Oh, here are my predictions for next year:

1.) Senators Specter and Voinovich (PA and OH respectively) will vote with Obama’s initiatives for a great majority of the time. Still an outside chance one of them might switch allegiances and caucus with Dems.

2.) John McCain will retire early, perhaps by late 2009, because of immense differences with Mitch McConjob and the GOP caucus. What will happen in Arizona 2010 is another question.

3.) President Obama will in the first 100 days pass so much legislation it would be like 1933 again.

4.) Vito Fossella will attempt a comeback after serving his time in jail. He will seek a seat on NYC council, using it as a springboard back into NY-13. I predict he will fail miserably in at least one of these.

And finally…

5.) Joseph Cao, the Vietnamese American congressman from a majority black, Democratic district will switch to the Democrats, or vote like a Democrat so much it won’t matter that he’s a Republican. In any event, if he stays in the GOP his goose is cooked.

6.) Following up on number 5, someone will release a parody of John Boehner’s memo entitled: “The Future is Cao….unless he becomes a Democrats.” I only gave the title, so it’s not me (yet….)

50 thoughts on “My Year End Observations/Predictions”

  1. How anybody can complain about AA representation in DC considering the race of the incoming occupant of the big chair is beyond me.  

  2. I voted for Edwards in the FL primary in both 2004 and 2008.  I always loved the guy and really wanted him to be the future face of the party.  Little did I know.  I will never completely forgive him for running for President this year, knowing the whole time that his personal life would eventually break, and when it did it would have destroyed our chances if he had been the nominee.

    As for Cao, I think he either switches to Dem or switched to independent and caucuses with the Dems.  At the very least he probably wants his one-term to have some relevance by being in the majority.  His views sound more like that of a southern populist Dem than a republican anyway.

  3. Both aren’t that bad on economic issues.  They are both part of the dying “big government republicans” group.  I think they’ll vote with us more because I have a feeling they both retire in 2010 anyway.  There are a few other in the “old guard” of their party that may surprise a lot of us in voting for some of Obama’s policies, such as Lugar and Grassley.

  4. Otherwise, interesting observations.

    I’ve met many a liberal who’s told me I was too hard on Lincoln Chafee or Chris Shays or some other “liberal Republican”. However, the main problem with these pols was that they were Bush enablers. Even though they occasionally voted on our side, they’d always vote for the GOP leader & they’d always fall in line when whipped to do so.

    Maybe it was just a problem with timing. Maybe if we had won other House/Senate seats to win a majority in 2006 before seeing a Democratic President win in 2008, it’d be awfully valuable to have “liberal Republicans” like Chafee or Shays ready to be picked off when necessary. That’s why I get your point on #1 with Voinovich & Specter today.

  5. But I’d rather they do so without setting up ridiculous strawmen like this one:

    It’s because of sites like this, and opposite sites from the GOP, that throw good people like Lincoln Chafee under the bus. Or tell people not to vote for Greg Davis (who lost to Travis Childer in MS-01) because he looked like Nathan Lane? That’s just childish.

    I would sure love if you could point out where we ever did that. We supported Travis Childers for a lot of reasons which are well-documented on this site, and none of them included the fact that Davis resembled Nathan Lane. But if you’re gonna get a hangup every time we tease a Republican (as we sometimes enjoy doing and will continue to do), then this isn’t the right blog for you.

    Oh, and as for Lincoln Chaffee. Sure, he’s a decent man, but are you honestly arguing that he was a better senator from a progressive standpoint than Sheldon Whitehouse is today? Not a chance.

  6. I wasn’t suckered by Edwards.  There was a slimy, smug, arrogant and nasty side of Edwards that came out late in the 2004 primary campaign.  I wondered how/why Edwards supporters forgot all about that.  Or maybe not.

    Spitzer somehow never figured out actual governance or ever got around to cleaning up the pus in the boil that is New York state government: the dysfunctional state agencies.  Instead he just got himself into a fight with Joe Bruno that he ended up losing on disqualification.

    China has nothing on us if we choose to have the political will to act.  

    For your predictions: this election is going to prove a serious disappointment.  I sadly don’t see any of your #1 through 4 happening.   The mandate is not as large as Obama enthusiasts imagine.  There is an active ethics/management improvement mandate and an economic fix mandate.  It seems to be about the same at the federal level as at the state level.

    The mandates on social issues/quality of justice/Constitutional interpretation, foreign alliances, conduct of war, and dealing with terrorism are pretty small, almost passive.  Not sufficient to sway any Republican votes, basically.  The 2010 elections will be where and when Democrats will have to go to the electorate and ask for a mandate on those issues.

Comments are closed.