ARG (12/27-29, registered voters):
Paul Hodes (D): 40
Judd Gregg (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 13Carol Shea-Porter (D): 35
Judd Gregg (R-inc): 54
Undecided: 11
(n=569)
ARG! takes a first look at the prospective matchups in the 2010 New Hampshire Senate race. No one has declared yet, although both of NH’s Democratic representatives have expressed some interest, and it’s not even certain whether Gregg plans to run for re-election, considering that he’s likely to race his first tough race in, well, forever.
Of the two representatives, Paul Hodes fares much better, coming within 7 points of Gregg, which is a pretty good place to be, two years out from taking on an entrenched incumbent. Carol Shea-Porter, who had a shakier 2008 re-election than Hodes, falls short by a somewhat wider margin. Although Hodes and Shea-Porter are the Dems getting the lion’s share of attention right now, it might be interesting to see a poll matchup between Gregg and popular Democratic Governor John Lynch; while Lynch seems comfortable in Concord and doesn’t seem likely to run, maybe he’d change his tune if he saw polls giving him an edge.
Listing Lynch, even if he doesn’t run, makes the relative strength and weakness of Hodes more clear.
Bad poll conception here.
I mean, it is AR”Obama’s up by 8 points in West Virginia”G.
Maybe we should wait and see if Shea-Porter’s grassroots efforts catch on the 2nd before we completely write her off, considering that she’s basically made her career out of people underestimating her.
However, while Carol Shea-Porter would be fantastic senator, Paul Hodes would hardly be a bad one and by everyone’s accounts is the safer pick. Basically, I’m cool with whoever will leave Gregg jobless in January ’11.
is such a bad pollster I wouldn’t even post anything on one of their polls. Quite frankly I don’t find them much more reliable then a Zogby internet poll.
It’s way better to have Gregg outright retire. He’s demonstrating he still has some strong leads even as his state goes more blue.
You should make room for the Rasmussen poll on NY-Sen. If it doesn’t come up soon I’ll make a diary on it.
Slurs (largely deserved) on ARG aside, this gives us a good basemark.
Gregg is not hated. But he’s not an institution. Hodes could trade up if he’s willing to run a tough and occasionally negative race. Shea-Porter certainly could, since that codicil doesn’t apply.
Either way, it won’t be easy, but neither race looks impossible right now.
Will Gregg’s staff will the void by coming to SSP to talk about how inaccurate the polls are and that Gregg is coasting?
I think it’s Lynch or bust for this race. Gregg is a much harder nut to crack than Sununu. Hodes could beat him, but he’s be a decided underdog. I’d rather he hold his house seat and the DSCC push Governor Lynch hard to run. If Lynch gets in early it might even push Gregg to retire.