Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who won a third term in November in a race that was closer than many Republicans would have liked, is expected to create an exploratory committee for a possible run for state attorney general in 2010, two Texas media outlets reported Thursday evening.
The current attorney general, Greg Abbott (R), is contemplating running for lieutenant governor next year – or for Senate if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) resigns early to pursue a gubernatorial bid.
This might be the most exciting House open seat news so far this cycle. McCaul won with just 54% of the vote in November, and 55% two years earlier. This district always looked more competitive than its (old) PVI of R+13, in large part due to an ongoing demographic sea change – in particular, Hispanic growth here has been through the roof.
I’d also be willing to bet that Bush’s numbers were inflated here due to a home state effect – and that Obama did better than Kerry’s 38%. The real question is whether there is something “wrong” with McCaul that’s kept his numbers down – and, consequently, would we be better off running against him or with an open seat? I’ll note that the DCCC didn’t spend a dime on this district, but first-time candidate Larry Joe Doherty did raise an impressive $1.2 million in his losing bid.
If McCaul bails, Doherty could conceivably run again, as could international affairs consultant Dan Grant, who ran in the primary against Doherty in 2008. My question to you: Are there any other strong candidate who might be tempted to run if there’s an open seat?
A legit pickup opportunity if the seat is open.
I’m not so optimistic.
Everyone else is second banana. State Rep. Strama has been very comfortably winning this more conservative part of Travis County since 2004 in a race he (nor any Dem) was not supposed to win.
Good Progressive, great communicator, fantastic guy.
If it’s open, draft Strama.
Here’s Mark’s issues page: http://markstrama.com/pub_issu…
Here’s a nice youtube introduction to both Mark and Donna Howard who’s statehouse district barely intersects TX-10 but if she could and were to run for it would also be fantastic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
44% Obama – 55% McCain
38% Kerry – 62% Bush
43% L.J. Doehrty – 54% McCaul (2008)
41% Ankrum – 55% McCaul (2006)
0% Democrats – 84% McCaul (2004)
It appears the folks aren’t none too willing to split tickets or Larry Joe just wasn’t right get people. Cross tabs show he performed the same as Obama in both Travis and Harris County (remember, he has the crazy part of Harris in his district).
Any possible Hispanic candidates here?
Michael Badnarik came within a mere 49 points of toppling McCaul in 2006. And this district borders Ron Paul’s!
Ralph Hall (born 1923), Sam Johnson (born 1930) and Ron Paul are all well up in age. All the Texas GOP CDs have lousy PVIs due to Bush. Hall (R+17), Johnson (R+17) and Paul (R+14) are actually in districts that rank average or a little better from a Democratic stand point.
Any chance they might retire? Or how bout one of the power wielders like Joe Barton? He’d probably make more money working as a lobbyist rather than merely working with the lobbyists. And Joe certainly seems like a “bidness man” as the old phrase goes.
Texas Republicans have been curiously immune from the retirement bug. Maybe it’s time to catch up.