Baruch College Survey Research for New York 1 (1/25-30, NYC residents, no trendlines):
Anthony Weiner (D): 36
Mike Bloomberg (R-inc): 43
Undecided: 16
Won’t Vote: 4Bill Thompson (D): 32
Mike Bloomberg (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 19
Won’t Vote: 4(MoE: ±4.3%)
Nice to see Bloombleberry dithering this far under 50, and the Weiner numbers are especially heartening. I think Thompson might be suffering from a little name-rec lag – his favorables are a nifty 48-10, but some 41% of people have no opinion of him. The poll didn’t ask Weiner’s favorables, but he’s probably better-known because of his 2005 mayoral run.
Interestingly, despite a still-lofty 64-29 approval rating, Bloomhauer doesn’t have much of an advantage in the top-lines horserace nums. Could people be growing sick of Bloombleberry even while they think he’s doing a good job? I can only hope.
P.S. The poll also tested the Dem primary:
Anthony Weiner: 31
Bill Thompson: 22
Tony Avella: 4
Won’t Vote: 6
Avella is a City Councilman. It’s not clear what the D sub-sample was. It’s also not clear to me why Baruch used city residents rather than registered voters, though they say there were 535 RVs out of a total sample of 705.
UPDATE: Quinnipiac also has a poll out today (1/20-25, registered voters, Nov. 2008 in parens):
Weiner: 35 (34)
Bloomberg: 50 (5)
Undecided: 12 (13)Thompson: 34 (34)
Bloomberg: 50 (49)
Undecided: 13 (14)(MoE: ±2.8%)
And for the Dem primary:
Weiner: 30
Thompson: 23
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±3.5%)
The Dems’ numbers are the same, but I’m not sure what explains the Bloomster discrepancy. Could be wording, could be the sample, could be who knows.
(H/t Conspiracy):
less than a year out, Ferrer was ahead of Bloomberg by like a point. A lot matters on the Democratic primary and how well a campaign the winner runs.
Ferrer alienated a lot of Weiner voters in the primary in 2005. Many of them turned around and voted for Bloomberg. I wrote one of my very first political stories on the aftermath of that primary. Many felt Weiner was unfairly pushed out of the primary and not allowed to go for the runoff, although final tallies show Ferrer had won enough votes to avoid a runoff…it didn’t matter.
Ferrer was also hurt by what I saw to be anti-Hispanic sentiment in parts of the city, especially in the part of Queens where I’m from. This is something Tony Avella will tap into…he’s the anti-immigrant Democrat in then race.
We definitely have a better chance of beating Bloomberg this time around, and either of these candidates could win. Thompson has a lot of good will for him by New York City residents and Weiner is a household name in the outer borough of Brooklyn and Queens. His congressional district (my home district) hasn’t voted Democratic for mayor since 1985…yes 1985.
You’re assuming that he’ll run as a Republican based on that sampling.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x130…
“If the 2009 mayoral election were held today: Bloomberg tops New York City Comptroller William Thompson 50 – 34 percent; Bloomberg beats U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner 50 – 35 percent.”
I get the reference, but I’ve never thought of Bloomberg as speaking in a difficult-to-understand manner.
Bloomberg is one of the richest people in the country. In the past, he has spent ungodly amounts of money on advertising. This has earned/bought him the favor of the traditional media.
Newspaper ad revenues have been sinking like a rock leading to bankruptcies, staff cuts, and near bankruptcies around the country. If Bloomberg opens up his lavish coffers in tyhat direction the local dailies should do what it takes to curry hzzoner’s favor and bucks.
At some point, and Bloomberg may be reaching it, he becomes an over-exposed joke. Once the jokes really hit, Weiner or whoever would win. It is a bad time to be Mr. Corporate.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Not much else to it.
I don’t know how much of a factor this is, but Anthony Weiner is kind of a jerk in how he treats his staff, and the 300,000 NYC public employees would probably not be very excited to have him as their boss…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07…
…voted for him for Mayor in the primary and would’ve voted for him in the general. Didn’t like Ferrer so voted for Bloomy last time around. After what Bloomberg did with torpedoing term limits certainly not going to do that again.
But one thing you need to remember about Bloomberg which is easy to forget. Just how wealthy he is and how much of an influence that money has at the very last minute. Last two weeks of the election there is a flyer in your mailbox every single day. Some negative, some positive. And that always moves the numbers a lot at the closing stage of the campaign.
In my increasing despair over the state of New York City’s 2009 cycle, one bright spot continues to be David’s relentless nickname harangue of Bloombo. Hear hear.
Thompson for a variety of reasons and am not a big Weiner fan either but if both of them run hard in a primary I don’t see how we come out of it with a shot at King Mike. I’d say let Weiner give it a go this time.