You’d think that two cycles of bad defeats would have Republican insiders thinking about how they might start heading toward relevance by trying to scramble back toward the political center they’ve written off (shown here, in the House context, in amazing visual fashion by Nate Silver). Instead, the maniacal orgy of own-eating continues.
Hot on the heels of news of a potential primary challenge to Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson by Rep. Paul Broun (for the crime of voting for the progressive agenda 4% of the time) comes news of behind-the-scene efforts to take out John McCain in 2010. National Review reports that some Arizona insiders, who’ve never tolerated McCain’s occasional mavericky play-acting, see an opening in the wake of McCain’s lackluster presidential run.
But now that he has lost the presidency, there are some Republicans in Arizona who would like to see him lose his Senate office, too. “I’ll do anything I can to support his Republican opponent, whoever that might be,” Rob Haney – who until last week was chairman of the Republican party in Arizona’s District 11 – told me recently. Haney has been a loud and vocal critic of McCain for years, arguing that McCain is “not a conservative in any way, shape, or form.”
Now, there are several caveats. Haney’s preferred candidate is loudmouthed ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth, bounced out of office in 2006 and currently working as a talk radio host. Hayworth claims to be “flattered,” but in his quotes in the article seems to be offering many excuses for why he might not run. Moreover, it’s not clear how much pull Haney has; he just lost his GOP chairmanship to a more moderate candidate. Nevertheless, it’s one more example of the GOP going back to what it does best: when finding yourself at the bottom of a deep hole, keep digging.
Why would they run to the middle when Rush has been saying for many months that the reason they keep losing is because they aren’t conservative enough.
The Republican party chooses committee chairs at least partly on ideology and downgrades seniority. This is discouraging to the dwindling number of moderates. Each cycle it seems like about 8 of the top 20 GOP moderates departs. Of course, as more actual moderates get picked off, this group itself is less and less moderate.
Republican politicians seem to want to become more conservative when the country is becoming less conservative. This is one of those pieces of advice that works on the individual but not the group level. Most of the remaining Republicans come from safe Republican districts. The biggest threat a John Boehner or Mark Pence faces is a possible primary for venturing too far to the center (I wouldn’t exactly call it left).
I made a list before the 2006 election of the most moderate Republicans. Nine of the top 14 are gone in a little over two years. One of the remaining five, Rodney Alexander, started out as a Democrat and his Progressive Punch score continues to drop steadily from the 40s at one point to the low 20s today (and soon the teens). The other four are Ron Paul, Chris Smith, Mike Castle, and Frank LoBiondo. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least two of those four either retire or be defeated. When an aging Ron Paul is the voice of “moderation” it says a lot about the Republican Party.
At some point, the bleeding will stop. But another 30 retirements and twenty lost seats inevitably pushes the GOP to the right. Many of the surviving moderates are from areas where Republicans are being consistently beaten at the statewide and regional levels. Chris Smith, Frank LoBiondo and Rodney Frelinghuysen are from New Jersey. Mike Castle is from Delaware. Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent arer from Pennsylvania. Mark Kirk and Tim Johnson are from Illinois. Vern Ehlers and Fred Upton are from Michigan. Even semi-moderates like Peter King and John McHugh from New York fall into this category. When the bottom is reached, whether it is at 160,150, 140,120 or even 100, these people will be gone most likely.
At that point, the last 140 or so will be incredibly irrelevant and incredibly “conservative.”
Does Skelton have a child by any chance that has expressed interest in running for political office? I don’t like political dynasties, but it may help hold the seat. Or maybe he and Taylor both have trusted Chiefs of Staff who rock at constituent services like Phil Hare did for Lane Evans?
As much as I like the idea of the Republicans canibalizing themselves (and think there’s a lot of truth in it), I’m skeptical about this one. A defeated party chairman of an Arizona district (how many are there? At least 11 apparently) who never liked McCain in the first place is making noise. So what! I don’t see anyone who could make a serious run against McCain in the R primary; certainly not Hayworth. The media sometimes gets hold of a meme and then writes stories that fit the meme even if they’re lacking substance. We’re more aware of it when it hurts our side. I think this time it’s the reverse.
Thanks for doing the research Chad. Hopefully the redistricting process turns out in our favor.