Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Jim Tedisco (2/3-4, registered voters):
Scott Murphy (D): 29
Jim Tedisco (R): 50
(MoE: ±4.9%)
NY-20 was always going to be a tough hold, despite the fact that it narrowly went for Obama over McCain, because of its historically Republican nature (as seen in the GOP registration advantage and the utter lack of a convincing Democratic bench). Although this is an internal poll from Tedisco’s camp, it pretty clearly shows what kind of a hole we’re starting in.
Complicating matters is the name recognition factor: Tedisco, as Assembly Minority Leader and someone with deep roots in nearby NY-21, sports a 51% favorable/13% unfavorable rating, while local businessman Scott Murphy has never held office before. Murphy’s one advantage is self-funding: he’s already amassed $600,000 cash on hand, including a $250,000 loan from himself. Which is good… if Murphy’s going to be competitive in this race, in the face of a relatively short timeframe, it’s going to have to be through a lot of paid media.
They’re a joke. If they claim a 21 point lead I’m confident we’ll win.
but I think the DCCC silence on this race confirms the poll.
Really unbelievable.
Gillibrand who destroyed a self-financed opponent who threw millions by a huge percentage… will now give up the seat with no fight.
Really DCCC?
You won great victories in this congressional district and you aren’t gonna have her campaign and try to push to victory?
Why?
I’m not sure how far the carpetbagging thing will take us, but are there any way out of the mainstream votes on the part of Tedisco? Something like restricting birth control for rape victims, something crazy like that. Where is he at on issues of choice or labor unions? Wasn’t Sweeney one of the Republican Labor Caucus so even the Republicans have to care about organized labor in this district.
There’s got to be plenty of votes in Tedisco’s record that Murphy or Gillibrand as the third party messenger could call him out on. I don’t think any third party ads would be helpful in this race unless they are done by someone the voters trust.
Democrats need to learn how to appoint people.
….for giving away a House seat, and giving Michael Steele a chance to give out another goose egg come November. We’re going for an ohfer this year as our candidates are really poor in all three key races, not just NY-20.
a particularly accurate pollster.
Take for example their WA-Gov poll from the middle of September
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Paterson is likely to delay as long as he can before calling the special election and then make it as far in advance as possible both to help him (distract from budget battle) and to help Murphy build up name rec. That means that this poll is about as far out as the WA-Gov one was.
The WA-Gov poll has Rossi winning by 2, he lost by 7.
So in reality Tedisco probably doesn’t have anywhere near that lead. Sure if the election was today he’d win, but it isn’t. Murphy is going to be able to raise well over a million dollars which will let him introduce himself to voters. Polls at this point mean nothing, especially from GOP pollsters.
But there is hardly a campaign yet and as others have said POS are crap. And yet he is only just at 50% so in reality its probaby more like 45-35. Tough hold yes, impossible no.
this is not the end of the world by any means. if this were murphy’s internal a week out it would be.
this was put out by tedisco to scare away murphy’s donors (inculding the dccc). we’re smart enough not to be scared away by such meaningless crap. frankly, i feel stupider for having looked at this poll.
Tedisco giving himself a 50% favorable poll rating is bogus on its face. He paid for the poll! His favorabilities are not close to being at or above 50% but he would like to have pundits believe he is soley to dampen enthusiasm for his opponent’s chances.
On the contrary, at least 50% of all eliglble voters who live outside Tedisco’s Assembly district know he is a buffoonish, sexist, political opportunist whose “claim to fame” is anchored in his “old time” high school basketball exploits. At best, he can be described as an Assembly gnat…with a short, unproductive legislative record of achievement. He is not Congressional material for any reason other than he is of Italian heritage and, for years, has been one of Joe Bruno’s GOP attack dogs.
The lower counties in the 20th Congressional district belong to Gillibrand (and/or her successor(Murphy). Murphy will run well in the town of Clifton Park, and the cities of Saratoga and Glens Falls.
Tedisco is in big trouble if Republican voters in Schenectady County stay home for this special election. If that happens he could lose by 10 or more percentage points. At this stage in the race an accurate poll should have Tedisco in front with 38/39%, Murphy about 9/10% behind with 29/30%, and with 31/32% undecided.
Once money (TV & radio advertising) comes into play, the undecideds will fall to Murphy at a rate of about 2 to 1 as he will outspend Tedisco by about that same ratio. My call, Murphy by 6/7% when all is said and done.