The waves keep getting smaller and smaller, as we wend our way closer to the conclusion of our massive presidential results-by-congressional district crowdsourcing project. For those of you who are counting, that leaves only six districts that we need to complete (AL-06 and AL-07, NY-02, NY-03, NY-04, and NY-05) in order to be not just the first outlet to make all this information public, but just plain the first outlet, period.
The geography nerds among you might be thinking, hey, that looks like we’re only two counties short of completion: Tuscaloosa County, AL, and Nassau County, NY. (You’re almost right: we also need Coosa County, AL, but it has only 12,000 people so I’m making a “close enough” call on AL-03 until we actually wrangle some data out of them.) Our ground forces in Alabama are already on the case of Tuscaloosa and Coosa Counties, but, to expedite matters, we need to switch on the SSP Batsignal over Gotham: we need an NYC-area correspondent to make the trek out to Mineola and have a date with the Nassau County Board of Elections’ copy machine. If you’re available to take this mission, please e-mail our intrepid publisher, DavidNYC (see the right column) and he’ll tell you what we need.
If you want to see a summary of the whole list of districts, click here. Waves one, two, three, four, and five provide additional detail, and for a truly ridiculous level of detail, each state’s database is accessible through our master database.
| District | Obama # | McCain # | Other # | 2008 % | 2004 % | 2000 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-03 | 117,511 | 154,408 | 2,068 | 42.9/56.4 | 41/58 | 47/52 |
| AL-04 | 58,863 | 199,858 | 3,133 | 22.5/76.3 | 28/71 | 37/61 |
| CO-01 | 222,008 | 72,573 | 4,637 | 74.2/24.3 | 68/31 | 61/33 |
| CO-06 | 202,100 | 229,715 | 5,925 | 46.2/52.5 | 39/60 | 37/60 |
| CO-07 | 168,885 | 113,873 | 5,615 | 58.6/39.5 | 51/48 | 50/49 |
| IN-02 | 153,369 | 126,801 | 3,347 | 54.1/44.7 | 43/56 | 45/53 |
| IN-03 | 123,571 | 162,183 | 2,727 | 42.8/56.2 | 31/68 | 33/66 |
| MO-02 | 172,368 | 215,175 | 3,839 | 44.0/55.0 | 40/60 | 39/59 |
| MO-09 | 144,583 | 181,339 | 5,199 | 43.7/54.8 | 41/59 | 42/55 |
| NY-26 | 148,588 | 166,890 | 4,570 | 46.4/52.2 | 43/55 | 44/51 |
| NY-27 | 156,635 | 127,249 | 5,144 | 54.2/44.0 | 53/45 | 53/41 |
| NY-28 | 184,132 | 81,445 | 3,332 | 68.5/30.3 | 63/36 | 60/35 |
Points of interest in this wave include AL-04, which, to our surprise, plummets past the West Texas districts to grab the dubious distinction of Obama’s worst performance (at 22%). This district used to send a Democrat to Congress until 1996, and even Gore got 37% here… but this is Alabama’s whitest and most rural district, where the southern end of the Appalachians and Birmingham exurbs meet.
Aside from some stagnation in NY-27 (the blue-collar white parts of Buffalo), everything else here is good news: huge swings in both Denver and its conservative suburbs, and even bigger swings in Indiana, where we not just flipped IN-02 (South Bend) but won it pretty convincingly.
As with our previous wave, our resident numbers guru jeffmd has been refining our figures as new data continues to trickle in, so we have another corrections table with 16 revised districts over the flip. Again, nothing major, but we know that many SSP readers are fans of utter and complete accuracy.
| District | Obama # | McCain # | Other # | Updated % | What we’d said |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-02 | 235,090 | 124,841 | 6,136 | 64.2/34.1 | 66.5/31.9 |
| CT-01 | 218,794 | 108,572 | 4,404 | 66.0/32.7 | 66.0/32.7 |
| CT-02 | 204,220 | 139,945 | 5,056 | 58.5/40.1 | 59.1/39.5 |
| CT-03 | 201,741 | 117,114 | 3,953 | 62.5/36.3 | 62.5/36.3 |
| CT-04 | 190,996 | 126,819 | 2,130 | 59.7/39.6 | 59.6/39.7 |
| CT-05 | 182,021 | 136,978 | 4,054 | 56.3/42.4 | 56.3/42.4 |
| IL-11 | 175,648 | 148,695 | 5,080 | 53.3/45.1 | 53.4/45.1 |
| IL-14 | 174,341 | 139,187 | 4,445 | 54.8/43.8 | 55.2/43.5 |
| IL-17 | 156,671 | 117,111 | 4,031 | 56.4/42.2 | 56.3/42.3 |
| IL-18 | 149,524 | 154,805 | 5,095 | 48.3/50.0 | 49.1/49.2 |
| MI-11 | 197,857 | 163,958 | 6,115 | 53.8/44.6 | 53.8/44.6 |
| MI-13 | 200,387 | 34,231 | 1,933 | 84.7/14.5 | 82.9/16.2 |
| MI-14 | 232,473 | 36,444 | 2,127 | 85.8/13.5 | 84.2/14.9 |
| MI-15 | 224,505 | 110,833 | 5,861 | 65.8/32.5 | 66.2/32.1 |
| TX-11 | 58,326 | 185,389 | 1,919 | 23.8/75.5 | 23.6/75.4 |
| TX-23 | 124,995 | 118,391 | 1,634 | 51.0/48.3 | 50.9/48.1 |
But CO-06 as well. Huge swings our way. I honestly cant believe he won Araphoe. I was out that way in July and saw very few Obama signs. To be fair I saw only slightly more McCain signs. I suppose the economic collapse swung a bunch of folks our way. Good trends in CO if we can maintain it.
Obama did only slightly better in Nassau County and all the minority neighborhoods are in NY-04, McCarthy’s district, so it’s of my opinion that Obama did as good or worse than Kerry in the NY-03 section of Nassau County. Judging also by having been in that area around the election, I’d be surprised if McCain didn’t win it. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won it by 5% or more.
I know we have high hopes for NY-03, but judging by the Presidential election results and the lack of a Democratic bench in that district, it’ll be difficult to win even without Peter King unless we bring someone in from just outside the district.
why each state doesn’t just post filed candidates and precinct results on the internet. How hard can it be?
Wisconsin updates the list of candidates who are running at least every other day once you get close to the deadline. They have a final list (barring challenges) by noon the next day. It has every candidate, their party, and their address.
On the other hand it seems like New York City never posts a list at all, and New York State’s doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, except maybe to people who are familiar with New York election laws.
Same thing with results. Wisconsin has not only a PDF of the precinct by precinct results within 3-4 weeks of the election, but an Excel file which I can sort and find results for statewide candidates in each state senate, state assembly, and U.S. house district and get a complete breakdown of presidential, gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, or AG races by legislative and congressional district within 2 hours.
And yet, 5 months after the election, we still wait for Nassau County, NY and Tuscaloosa County, AL.
Now that New York has Democratic control of all three elected parts of the government I would hope that posting this information online would be part of any ethics reform packages that might be considered.
I know I’m just preaching to the choir here, but I just had to get that out.
I knew what to expect in Colorado and Indiana, when the statewide numbers swing that hard it’s generally every single district that posts good gains, but wow…I cannot believe we came within 6% of winning Tancredo’s old district.
Redistricting is going to be huge in 2012. A bunch of representatives are going to find themselves in unwinnable districts.