I have to write four final exams over the next three days. (Ugh.) Needless to say, I don’t think I’ll have time for any blogging at all during the first half of the week. Sorry about that.
Feel free to use this as an extra open thread. And, to keep the discussion going, how about we do this:
In the comments, list the 10 most vulnerable House Republican seats and the 10 most vulnerable House Democratic seats in the 2008 election. Rank each incumbent in order of vulnerability, from most threatened to least.
Have at it!
Why the heck not?
TARGETS
Keying off of the announcement that ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich is launching an exploratory committee, I’ll start in New Mexico. This order is pretty vague.
NM-1
CA-4
WA-8
NY-25
OH-15
NC-8
FL-13
AZ-1
MI-7
OH-2
Depending on my whim, replace any of the last few with MI-9, NY-29, NJ-7, NV-3, PA-15, IL-10, or, if they’re open, FL-10 or VA-11.
VULNERABILITIES
Meanwhile, on the defense side, the first two or three are easy to pick, but lower down it’s in no particular order – more gut instinct than anything else, and mostly because I’m asked to pick 10.
TX-22
FL-16
PA-10
KS-2
GA-8
NH-1
WI-8
CA-11
OH-18
MN-1
The GOP will be charging very hard against PA-8, NY-19, and NY-20, but I think they’ll come up quite empty-handed there.
Vulnerable Democratic Seats
1)TX-22
2)FL-16
3)PA-10
4)KS-2
5)WI-8
6)GA-3
7)CA-11
8)PA-4
9)NH-1
10)IN-9
Vulnerable Republican Seats
1)CT-4
2)PA-6
3)NM-1
4)AZ-1
5)C
Vulnerable Dems:
1. CA-11
2. FL-16
3. IN-09
4. KS-02
5. TX-22
6. PA-10
7. NY-20
Vulnerable Repubs:
1. AZ-01
2. CT-04
3. OH-01
4. OH-15
5. NM-01
6. FL-13
7. PA-06
8. WA-08
9. NY-25
Both parties have a similar numbers of incumbents at risk.