Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 45
Rob Simmons (R): 40Chris Dodd (D-inc): 51
Sam Caligiuri (R): 30Chris Dodd (D-inc): 53
Larry Kudlow (R): 31Ned Lamont (D): 30
Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25
Jodi Rell (R): 42Dick Blumenthal (D): 28
Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25
Jodi Rell (R): 43
(MoE: 4%)
After the extended flap about what his role was in allowing payment of the AIG bonuses, conventional wisdom on Chris Dodd seemed to turn on a dime in the last week, as he suddenly went from being considered relatively safe to being considered a lame, if not dead, duck. Research 2000 acted quickly to get into the field in Connecticut and get the first post-AIG-gate poll of CT-Sen, and it looks like the CW may be overreacting a bit in sticking a fork in Dodd.
Dodd’s favorables are still in positive territory, clocking in at 47-40. Dodd is also beating all his GOP rivals, including ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (who edged Dodd out by a point in a recent but pre-AIG Quinnipiac poll) by a 5-point margin. He’s in the below-50% danger zone against Simmons though, and he’s also uncomfortably close to 50 against little-known state senator Sam Caligiuri. (R2K also polls CNBC bobblehead Larry Kudlow, who last night ruled out a run.)
While it looks like we can put the fork back in the drawer, Dodd’s position is still precarious enough that Swing State Project is downgrading CT-Sen to “Lean Democratic.” AIG might be starting to recede in the nation’s rear-view mirror, but in his position as the Senate’s lead Dem on banking issues, he’s in a highly-visible hot seat for any further Wall Street scandals and crises… and if his last week is any indication, he’s gotten kind of rusty at dodging incoming fire. Simmons also remains a popular figure with a lot of upside; his favorables are 41-18.
This poll’s also a two-fer, as we look ahead to 2012. The good news is: Joe Lieberman fares poorly against both AG Dick Blumenthal and 2006 candidate Ned Lamont, narrowly trailing each of them. The bad news is: this is a three-way race, and if Republican governor Jodi Rell decides to jump in, she beats all of them handily. (Rell has favorables in the Mother Theresa/Joan of Arc realm, at 71-20.) It’s way too early to tell if Rell is interested in taking this route, though, and she certainly shouldn’t be considered “generic R,” as there’s a pretty steep falloff to whatever else is on the GOP’s bench.
Dodd is probably at his absolute low point right now in the polls. If he’s up 5 despite all the bad press I’m feeling very good about this one.
You are more on target than most people would think. My girl friend met Mother Theresa in the last few months of her life. On the one hand she was the sweet old lady (very frail). On the other hand she could talk nearly anybody into doing these incredibly charitable acts by the force of her personality and her accomplishments. In one sense, Mother Theresa was a uniquely effective “politician.” In another sense, she never ran for office but would have been a natural.
a few notches once the campaign starts. He had the benefit of being out of the spotlight for a few years now, but all it’s going to take is some digging up of his votes and actions during the Bush years. He is no Jodi Rell.
Does Rell really run against Lieberman? They ought to have pretty similar politics. She doesn’t strike me as ultra-ambitious…
I’m also surprised to see Blumenthal running better than Lamont. I figured Lamont would be more polarizing.
Lieberman has been making noises about entering. I agree with the Dodd rating change and that hopefully this is a low watermark.
so, by “Guys”, I mean republican ranters and ravers…but this information is just as relevant for democrats, especially for democrats who think the sky is falling the moment some polls show temporary weakness for a DEM candidate.
“You know, thinking that a republican is going to win a senate seat in CT is pretty much like thinking that a democrat is going to win a senate seat in UT. This is plain old nonsense.
Guys, this states is fool’s gold for the GOP.
Obama just won this state with 60.59% of the popular vote and swamped McCain’s 38.22% with a 22.37% winning margin, very comparable to McCain’s win in AL. Did anyone here think that Obama was going to win AL? Are there any democratic senators from AL? No.
You can rejoice all you want over wavering polls for Dodd now, 1 and 1/2 years before the 2010 elections, but on election day in 2010, after having flirted with the GOP as both Connecticut and New Jersey usually do, voters in CT will vote reliably democratic.
Dodd will win in a landslide. Why? Here’s why:
Dodd’s worst showing in an election was in 1980, during the “Reagan Revolution”, where Dodd landslided with 56.34% over Buckley’s 42.91%, a +13.43% winning margin, and this was his WORST showing ever in electoral politics as a nominated candidate. In 2004, Dodd won with 66.35% to Orchulli’s 32.13%, a +34.22% blowout margin, slightly higher than his +32.78% margin blowout over Gary Franks in 1998, which was also considerably larger than his 1992 margin of +20.69%. So, regardless of administration in the WH, republican or democratic, Dodd has always won in landslides in his homestate, both in the senate and before in CT’s 2nd congressional district.
Those are the statistics and they are undeniable. Even if the GOP prepares a massive and costly onslaught against Dodd, he has enough core support to bring him over 50% even on his worst day. It’s that simple.
But what the hey, if the GOP wants to waste the resources, more power to it.”
Both because it’s CT and that’s the cmte he chairs. Keep in mind that the banking sector is a leading indicator of the economy at the moment. Odds are, he’ll look a lot better a year from now.