Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
---|---|---|---|
Scott Murphy | (D) | 53,250 | 50% |
Jim Tedisco | (R) | 54,201 | 50% |
RESULTS: Associated Press | PostStar.com | Albany Times-Union
9:59PM: Let’s move this discussion over here.
9:51PM (David): Sorry about the site slowness – I guess we’re popular tonight. Our back-of-the-envelope shows that (like the results so far), things are shaping up to be super-tight. Given the number of absentee ballots outstanding, this one might not get decided tonight.
9:38PM: 312 precincts in, and Tedisco! pulls back ahead by 800 votes.
9:35PM: 280 precincts in, and Murphy pulls ahead by just over 200 votes.
9:33PM: 206 precincts in, and Tedisco has grown his lead to about 2500 votes.
9:28PM: 168 precincts in, and Tedisco leads by 1300 votes. Starting to narrow ever so slightly in Saratoga.
9:23PM: 52-48 Tedisco! with 90 precincts in.
9:20PM: With just 50 precincts reporting, Tedisco holds a narrow 51-49 lead (about 350 votes), but leads big in the early-reporting Saratoga precincts.
9:03PM Eastern: Polls are now closed in New York. It’s time to rock ‘n’ roll.
I’m calling this one for Murphy.
They say there no atheists in battlefield foxholes. I am not sure there are any atheists among progressive Democrats on nights like these.
First precincts: http://66.195.74.98/
that Tedisco’s been headfaking us all along with this disastrous semblance of a campaign in meltdown, lowering expectations so that if he wins it looks like some kind of miracle?
Sorry if this has been covered someplace else, but which are the traditional red/blue districts in the area?
I’m in Clifton Park (Southern Saratoga). First time I’ve followed with you guys. Great info.
and the counties so far seem a representative mix of Tedisco and Murphy territory.
Murphy needs to run up the total in Washington, Warren and Essex in order to win.
It is still very early in the game, anything can happen
mostly Tedisco areas like Saratoga and Renesalauer reporting first, not to mention conservative Greene county.
50 out of 610 reporting.
Murphy 49, Tedisco 51.
Warren is the most heavily reported county so far, and Murphy is doing much better than Obama there as expected (home district).
Very little of Saratoga is in yet, so hard to tell whether Tedisco’s 59-41 early lead there will hold up.
Interesting that it’s already this close with only a small amount of the precincts in. Anything other than a few hundred vote margin for either candidate would be a suprise to me at this point.
Northern Saratoga counties are likely in first, Southern Saratoga is much denser and much more favorable to Murphy. Plus city of Saratoga has ALOT of active Obama Dems, I know from volunteering.
with more of Saratoga and Greene in. So far Warren is keeping him afloat, but it’s half reported already. Again, Saratoga is large enough that it’s hard to tell if the reported districts are representative of the whole county.
Not liking this. The margin in Saratoga is way to large to overcome if it holds up, and he’s a little behind in Reneslauer and Osteogo, not where he needs to be at least.
Anyone have the crosstabs lying around? What was the expectation in Saratoga?
and he’s doing well there, and he’s starting to gain in Saratoga and is holding steady in Warren, outperforming by 6 or 7 points over Obama so it should be enough to counter a weak margin in Saratoga.
But its the second smallest.
http://www.dutchesselections.c…
So far I’m not liking this.
I have a feeling that it will show us where this race is headed.
Based on the benchmarks posted a few days ago, what we’re looking for is, basically, tie it up overall in Saratoga (a third of the district), and win by a few points in the southern bit of the district = Duchess + Columbia, which together account for about a quarter of the district or something like that.
At least, that’s based on the Obama benchmarks. Perhaps given the candidates, it is possible for Murphy to win even if very narrowly losing Saratoga overall, making it up in Warren? (?) We’ll see soon.
If Murphy loses? I’m not hoping he lose, I’m just wondering, since a number of other contributors have suggested points that the GOP would make should Tedisco lose.
he’s winning it by 1,500 votes:
Scott Murphy Democratic 5326
Jim Tedisco Republican 3875
Scott Murphy Independence 500
Jim Tedisco Conservative 615
Scott Murphy Working Families 228
but he should come up when Warren and Washington finish reporting. On the bright side he’s starting off very well in Dutchess and Essex, just needs to pick up in Saratoga.
in Saratoga County with 43% in. http://66.195.74.98/
down to 43-57 now. It’s very possible Tedisco’s best areas reported first.
things are looking bad, Tedisco is running up his entire margin of victory out of Saratoga, and it’s not even half through reporting, while Warren, Murphy’s base, is almost completely in.
by 214 votes I see
Murphy leads!
Columbia just came in and Murphy’s winning!
Murphy is doing alot better than expecting in Washington county
by 200+. Washington county came in well.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…
Still less than half counted.
That website is WAY behind on Saratoga where Tedisco is really up 3,500 votes, not 2,600 as it says.
Murphy’s pulled ahead now. Still very close.
Warren and Washington came in for Murphy, as did Columbia. If margins hold in those three counties and Essex, and he wins Delaware and keeps these margins he could win even with his weak showing in Saratoga.
Warren and Washington came in for Murphy, as did Columbia. If margins hold in those three counties and Essex, and he wins Delaware and keeps these margins he could win even with his weak showing in Saratoga.
Tedisco by 3,800 votes there… those last 70+ precincts have to be favorable for Murphy to win this.
Is that red or blue?
Murphy trails 44-56 there, after as bad as 41-59 earlier. Half of Saratoga is still out, and if the last half is good for Murphy, he might not do so bad in that county, and his margins elsewhere will put him over the top.
38,199 (Murphy) against 39,002 (Tedisco), according to the Saratogian.
I don’t know how Murphy comes back unless he can narrow Tedisco’s edge in Saratoga. I mean, one-third of the precincts left are in a county that Tedisco is winning by 57-43.
Also, isn’t Rennselaer (sic?) in the same county as the technical college? I figured Tedisco would be doing worse there. Obama owns college towns.
He needs to cut that to under 3K
has met its match. Totally jammed…
Dems fell for the headfake yet again.
Could the late prescients be dem?
Murphy’s up by 63! haha
Murphy just has to pull up in Saratoga, it’s got the most outstanding precincts and he’s stayed put there, barely inching up all night.
Murphy just has to pull up in Saratoga, it’s got the most outstanding precincts and he’s stayed put there, barely inching up all night.
Aren’t there ~6,000 absentee ballots out there? Also, Talking Points Memo seems to have the most updated numbers: Tedisco – 46,969 and Murphy – 46,645.
That the remaining precincts in Saratoga are Democratic. But that margin just isn’t dropping… still 4K
The Saratoga results after 145 out of 188 still look bad — about the same as in the 126 precincts reported in the Saratogian. Results here:
http://66.195.74.98/
4000 vote margin for Tedisco
The Saratogian, we are already
53,250 Murphy
54,201 Tedisco
809 vote lead for Tedisco!
Boo.
Murphy is doing very poorly in Saratoga. I don’t see how he pulls this out, but it will sure be close. Final margin under 1k. The military ballots could swing it.
voted for Jim Tedisco is a special election doesn’t make me feel good about how much this country wants progressive ideas. I could forgive a Republican win in a low turnout election, but these are midterm numbers we’re seeing here.
the numbers throughout the district are genuinely okay for Murphy, not stellar, but okay. A 4,000 vote deficit in Saratoga is dooming us.
Then again, whoever wins tonight won’t win by more than 1-2,000 votes, and rumor is there are a lot of absentees out there. We may not have a winner until those are counted.
505/610 precincts in its 63,932-62,811 at “50-50”.
Not really a shock, figured Tedisco would win. Very sad, but not unexpected. Looks like Republicans will be winning back at least 20 seats in 2010.
down 4100 in saratoga, 7% left to go
I come up with Murphy down 220 – 250 votes, not counting absentee
OMG……Murphy is behind by 30 votes!!!
3 precints left
Its 76,753-76,321. A 252 lead for Murphy!
This is going to end in a dead heat.
And its an 81 pt. lead for Murphy. Good lord almighty…
1 precint left