• PA-Sen: Now that Rep. Steve Israel got chased out of the New York Senate race, the Dems have turned their negative-charm offensive to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. No phone call from the POTUS, apparently, but the DSCC and Bob Menendez are on the case. (Sestak has been dialing down the rhetoric on Arlen Specter in the last week, so he may already be arriving at this decision on own.) Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the ledger, the party seems reconciled to Pat Toomey‘s candidacy. They’ve stopped (publicly, at least) looking for a more moderate alternative to Toomey for the primary.
• OK-Sen: Insiders seem to believe that Tom Coburn is going to opt for re-election to the Senate, despite his public unenthusiasm. Potential successors Reps. Tom Cole and Dan Boren both told the Oklahoman that they’re confident he’ll run again.
• FL-Sen: He hadn’t sounded likely to run even before Charlie Crist got into the race, but Rep. Ron Klein finally made it official that he won’t run for Senate and will run for re-election instead. If state Sen. Dan Gelber jumps to the AG race, that leaves only Rep. Kendrick Meek alone for the nomination. (H/t Senate Guru.)
• IL-Sen: With the Republicans steeling themselves for the possibility that Rep. Mark Kirk doesn’t come to save them in the Senate race, they’re starting to coalesce around an unexpected Plan B: Steve Preston, who was the HUD Secretary during the last year of the Bush administration. Preston has never been elected before, and “Bush cabinet” isn’t exactly good resume material these days, but he would at least bring fundraising connections to the table.
• NY-Gov: Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer best known for being Richard Nixon’s son-in-law, is considering the New York Governor’s race. He’s a behind-the-scenes guy (he ran the McCain campaign in New York and may run for the next state GOP chair), but may emerge from behind the curtain to run if Rudy Giuliani doesn’t get into the race. Also, Siena has another poll (PDF) of both the Gov & Sen races, but little has changed except for a drop in support for gay marriage.
• NC-08: The NRCC’s plans to mount a high-profile challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th just got intercepted. Mike Minter, former Carolina Panthers safety who’s never run for office but is well-connected among local megachurchers, declined to run after a lot of wooing. (I could have said Minter punted, but that wouldn’t have made as much sense.)
• AL-05: The Republicans did land an African-American candidate to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith in the Huntsville-based 5th, though, albeit a lower-profile one. Lester Phillip is a navy veteran who’s currently the state GOP’s “minority outreach director.”
North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns appears to still be in the FL-Sen Democratic primary. He hasn’t generated many headlines to speak of, but he is still nominally in for the time being.
had hoped Minter would get the evangelical black vote and be able to appeal to enough of that Demographic to beat Kissell.
Still, a steady stream of not so good news for the GOP on the recruitment front. I’m cautiously optimistic for gains in the house, depending on the continuing fortunes of Obama’s presidency. A filibuster proof senate seems all but assured right now, but Democrats still could lose some house seats, though its looking less and less likely. Governorships seem like the worst front. While Democrats seem heavily favored to win California, Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Nevada, they look like they’re gonna go bust in NJ and Virginia, and in the 2010 cycle also lose Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and possibly Michigan and fail to retake Arizona. And while they have a good shot at Florida and Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado look like they’re going to be tough races.
Specter already praising SCOTUS pick. I don’t see a primary being viable.
I’m surprised that he’s rebounding with voters, not surprised with Jewish voters, but with young voters it’s surprising (guess young people aren’t as enthused about upholding family values as their parents once were). If Spitzer does decide to return to politics, is there a chance he could be governor or AG again?
It means every state in play this year will be on our turf, except Kentucky (with Missouri a coin flip state, and Florida not in play).
Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma could have been in play this year (plus Iowa), which would make the Reps spends money in states they should easily carry. As of now, they won’t have to spend a nickel and we won’t be able to make any inroads. To the contrary, Kansas and Oklahoma become far redder, out of play for 15 years at least.
The second time could be the charm running for the GOP in the IL senate race for you-know-who.
He’s probably rested up from losing his presidential bid last November (coming in 7th in the overall popular vote with 47,768 votes).