I just received this email from the campaign of Brett Wagner suggesting that Elton Gallegly may step down by the end of the year, kicking off a special election.
Dear Friend,
Our congressional district has waited a long time for our 22-year incumbent, Republican archconservative Elton Gallegly, to retire. And now that my contacts on Capitol Hill are telling me that Mr. Gallegly appears to be preparing to step down early — perhaps later this year, triggering a special election — it’s “incumbent” upon us to build a winning campaign as quickly as possible.
(after all, the best time for a congressional seat to change parties is when it “opens up”)
Should the election to replace Mr. Gallegly be scheduled for later this year — as many expect — it will also have the potential for nationwide impact, helping to set the stage for which party will win the majority in Congress in 2008.
I don’t know what to make of this as I was sure Rick Renzi (AZ-01) was going to step down any minute. Perhaps someone out there has heard something as well?
Its in a fairly coastal area of California, which would keep it from being overwhelmingly conservative. and it only has a cook PVI of R+5… Not impossible… With the right candidate and an open special election… It could be a win… It would take a good mobilization of voters on election day, and good grassroots effort, but I don’t think it would be impossible.
several results I’ve looked at from the 1990s show it backing both Feinstein and Boxer narrowly in 1992, and Clinton as well. It only narrowly voted for Bush in 2002, then legislative Democrats, apparently, mauled the district and bumped bush up to 55% in 2000. apparently they had to make usre every single Democrat had a Seventy Percent democratic district so that they would never to have to attempt to hold a seat through an actual fair, close election were voters get to make a real decision. Man I hate the California Democratic party…
They better make a lot of these districts more Dem leaning by reducing the districts that are 70% Dem to about 60% Dem. If McNerney is still around, knock on wood, they can easily carve out a safe district for him by extending it nearly into Oakland.