Wow. Just wow. SurveyUSA has the first general election match-up poll between Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher and his Democratic opponent in this November’s elections, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Fletcher, whose administration has endured a first term marred by ethics controversies and indictments, just recently turned away a fierce primary challenge by ex-Rep. Anne Northup, who has been regarded as one of the best campaigners in the state. Fletcher’s survival might be partially attributed to his deflection of the ethics controversy as “politically motivated” (after all, the Attorney General who handed down the indictments, Democrat Greg Stumbo, subsequently ran for Lt. Gov. on Bruce Lunsford’s ticket), and one might suspect that the poll numbers would show a tighter race now that the local pundits have been writing about Fletcher’s astounding “comeback”. Not so, according to SUSA (likely voters, no trendlines, 5/25/07 results):
Steve Beshear (D): 62%
Ernie Fletcher (R-Inc.): 34%
(MoE: ±3.9%)
What an absolutely staggering lead for Beshear, who is now claiming the support of 36% of Republican voters. As long as Beshear keeps a steady focus and runs a smooth campaign, this one could be a slam dunk. All for the better, as holding the Kentucky Governor’s mansion should protect Reps. Chandler and Yarmuth from any funky redistricting threats in 2012.
(Hat-tip: Bluegrass Report)
Race Tracker: KY-Gov
“All for the better, as holding the Kentucky Governor’s mansion should protect Reps. Chandler and Yarmuth from any funky redistricting threats in 2012.”
I think that the Governor elected in 2011 would have some influence redistricting too. Although there’s not a huge window for passing redistricting in 2012.
Anyways, with the Republican Senate and Democratic House, there’s no map other than a compromise map that is passable.
Beshear being governor doesn’t mean a lot redistricting-wise. But if Democrats take the Senate, then they could create a map that condenses Republican votes in one district, and makes the western and eastern districts more Democratic, while maintaining the current 3rd and 6th districts.